U.S. murder rate rose by 10.8 percent in 2015

What in the fuck do you think that has to do with what I've said?

If the murder rate's at 50%, the variance is 25%. If the murder rate's at 10%, the variance is 9%. There's far less natural, year-to-year variability when it's low (or way high).

A 10% increase in the murder rate is a helluva lot less likely when the murder rate's 10% than when it's 50%. And just to be clear, I definitely mean to say that a murder rate increase from 10% to 11% is way the hell less likely than a murder rate increase from 50% to 55% ...

 

Probably less considering the Blue Bell listeria outbreak. That might have driven some Southerners to kill.

 

Not if the 400-pounder gained the weight while hacking into the DNC from his bed.

 

What is a 50% murder rate? You mean half the people are murdered in a year?

 

He's more likely to die from tainted Blue Bell ice cream. Though I'm sure Hillary will be fingered.

 

A 50% murder rate is a contrivance of mine to demonstrate the underlying point, which is that as a variable such as the murder rate approaches its lower limit, its variance gets much smaller.

If you treat it more properly as some number of occurrences per X thousand people, the same idea would hold: The variance of the rate of occurrence would be equal to the mean rate of occurrence. When the rate of occurrence is at or near its lower limit (0 in this case), the likelihood of large relative increases (i.e., an increase in the rate of 10.8%) becomes smaller.

 

I think you need to start with a simple, "If Johnny has 10 apples . . . " example.

 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! DAMN YOU!!! NOW I'VE GOTTA USE A MELON-BALLER TO SCOOP THAT OUT OF MY GREY MATTER!

 

Who is ready for the Bayesian vs. frequentist smackdown?

 

Looking at the numbers over 13,000 murdered in US 2015. Of that number over
7000 African Americans. Yet not a peep from Black Lives matter on that stat.

 

No. 1 ...

11 Major Misconceptions About the Black Lives Matter Movement | Black Lives Matter

 

Not by Bill.