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U.S. murder rate rose by 10.8 percent in 2015

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Dick Whitman, Sep 26, 2016.

  1. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

  2. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

  3. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    Mr. Sunshine likes this.
  4. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    Crime is down compared to any period prior to 2011. Crime, including murder, is down in Boston, NYC, LA and other large places. Murder is up significantly in some other places, but the murder rate is still near historic lows since 1965. News of murders in faraway places has skyrocketed on local and cable news, though. A Boston murder should be big news here. A murder in Phoenix, not so much. But you're as liable to see one on the six o'clock news as the other.
  5. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

  6. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    Ummmm no ... A smaller base means that the likelihood of a big jump (even relatively speaking) is actually smaller ...
    Mr. Sunshine likes this.
  7. Neutral Corner

    Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

    If you have a smaller base and the same number of murders, murders will grow as a percentage.
  8. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    Imagine you have a regular six-sided die. As you toss it, your numerical result will vary, but it will vary within predictable limits.

    Now imagine you have a die with 100 sides. Ninety of the sides take the value of 0, the rest take the value of 1. As before, as you toss it your result will vary within predictable limits.

    Now suppose that for awhile you've been tossing those dice and keeping track of each die's running average. For which die would a 10% shift in the average be more dramatic probability-wise?
  9. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    Wouldn't a 200-pound man gaining 25 pounds be more dramatic than a 400-pounder?
  10. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    Yes. So?
  11. poindexter

    poindexter Well-Known Member

    What an incredibly obtuse, tone deaf answer.

    There were 15,000 murders last year. If the year before there were 10,000 murders, it is a 50 percent increase.

    If the year before, there were 7,500 murders (a smaller base), the same 15,000 murders would reflect a 100% increase. The murders have grown as a percentage.
  12. JohnHammond

    JohnHammond Well-Known Member

    How much ice cream was consumed on a per capita basis last year? Any connections?
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