Tropical Storm Fay

People in the Keys don't even blink an eye at this.

A windy rainstorm for them. That's all.

 

Non-residents have been ordered to leave Monroe County today. Officials there will make a decision on residents tomorrow.

Hurricane hunters found max surface winds of 25 mph 2 hours ago.



Interesting commentary on Jeff Masters' blog at Weather Underground ...

 

Aaaaaand ... the westward shift begins.



This could go ashore anywhere between Tampa and Pascagoula, with the center of the combined projections being about Apalachicola. If it's going to hit the southern Florida peninsula, it's gonna have to turn on a dime.

Start waxing your surfboard, 3bags.

 

The Hurricane Center's last prediction has it making that turn and making landfall near the Cross City-Chiefland area (I got my first ticket at 16 in Chiefland, btw). That path would take it just east of us.

If it turns any farther west, however, would put us in the crosshairs. I live, basically, 70 miles north of Panama City. Thus, a tropical storm or Cat 1 wouldn't be much of a threat to us. A Cat 2 would make us think. A 3, and we'd split. At that point, all our helicopters would be flown most likely to Ft. Campbell, so we'd be shut down, anyway.

We'll keep an eye out.

 

That BAMM ECMWF model just looks weird. Goes across Florida, hits the Atlantic just above Jacksonville, then makes a beeline back to the middle of the Gulf before heading toward Mobile.

 

That's the Drunken Tropical Storm Fay model.

 

The model that's "usually spot on" has it going right over my house... Dixiehack, how big is your basement?

 

Which model is that? I'd sure love to know. 'Cause it'll have to come over mine to get to yours.

 

Negative, ghost rider. We're sitting on top of a slab, and about a sand wedge away from a drainage ditch notorious for flooding.

 

Key West Citizen reports that shelters have opened in Monroe County, although all but one of the computer models now have the storm going well west of the Dry Tortugas. No plans to close US 1 yet, though.

 

Flooding, I won't have to worry about -- living on high ground that. It's the 70-foot pines that surround the house I'm concerned about.

 

Having lived all of my life in hurricane country, I hope people in other regions understand it's not as simple as "Why don't those people evacuate." Even with technology we didn't have 10, 20 and 30 years ago, there is so much uncertainty. Try to imagine the stunning swiftness with which Hurricane Audrey shifted gears and raced for the Louisiana coast under darkness of night in 1957.

It cuts through political, economic and many other real-world realities to have to wait and watch while a storm brews, and the armchair quarterbacking that goes on later is much easier than always knowing the right move at precisely the right time.

Wishing all my friends in Florida well while hoping Jesus Muscatel doesn't have to go through basic training again ...