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Tropical Storm Fay

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Johnny Dangerously, Aug 15, 2008.

  1. Johnny Dangerously

    Johnny Dangerously Active Member

    Keep an eye on it, Gulf Coast folks. Might want to plan to buy your water and fill up your gas tank before the rush, along with making a list of all the other essentials.

    For what it's worth, a friend in meteorology says the projected path cone (I had one to link to, but it just went inactive) will keep shifting to the west and likely settle along the Louisiana-Mississippi border. He says he's seeing early indications like he saw with Katrina -- expectation of hitting Florida's peninsula, then the Florida panhandle, then surprising everyone by shifting westward until making landfall in the Louisiana-Mississippi border area.

    I know it's early, but I figured I'd post this to give people who are busy with football tabs and Olympics a gentle nudge.

    Let's hope everyone catches a break with this one.

    [​IMG]

    Some early computer models here:

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2014
  2. Mystery_Meat

    Mystery_Meat Guest

    NHC isn't really sure what this one's going to do. If the storm jogs north (or the center reforms north), it's an East Coast storm. If it does the same to the south, it's an issue for the west half of the GOMEX.

    One good bit of news (at least for U.S. folk) -- if it rides along Hispanola and Cuba like the projections have it, it'll take much of the punch out of it before it gets going. Still could be a problem, particularly if there's a closed circulation in the super-hot GOMEX.

    Also, before anyone else can do it:

    [​IMG]
     
  3. 2muchcoffeeman

    2muchcoffeeman Active Member

    At this hour, it's a Gulf problem --- partially explaining why I don't live along the Gulf Coast. GOMEX is like one big catch-pen for hurricanes.

    If it goes up Florida's western coastline, it skips along the shore with peak sustained winds under 50 mph. If it makes it into the Gulf, it hits further west as a Cat2, I believe.

    They have more computer models to confuse themselves with, but I believe the LBAR is the one that's usually spot-on. So far, that's not in Johnny's neighborhood. :-\

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2014
  4. Ben_Hecht

    Ben_Hecht Active Member

    Folks at Accuweather had this thing ticketed for the Northeast, next weekend. Pardon me for being (relatively) relieved -- today.
     
  5. Mystery_Meat

    Mystery_Meat Guest

    Joe Bastardi makes some really weird calls -- sometimes he's right, sometimes he's wrong, and all the time he has a name everyone makes fun of.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html is a good resource; Jeff Masters knows his shit. The comments section is about as frantic and useful as the comments section of an immigration story on your paper's web site.
     
  6. Football_Bat

    Football_Bat Well-Known Member

    For Texas (and New Orleans and Pensacola's) sake, I hope this thing goes Scott Norwood.

    The BAMD model looks best-case: over land most of the way and a good rain for the Everglades.
     
  7. Mystery_Meat

    Mystery_Meat Guest

    The D stands for deep (there's a BAMS for shallow and BAMM for middle), so it won't do as good a job figuring out Fay unless/until it becomes a stronger storm. If anything, people in the path now should feel good because storms almost never follow the first projected path.

    The more land the better, but Haiti's going to be hurting with all that rain falling on mountains long since deforested, sliding down into shitty infrastructure.
     
  8. ColbertNation

    ColbertNation Member

    Totally beat me to that one.
     
  9. Batman

    Batman Well-Known Member

    [​IMG]

    One Fay I would've liked to be blown by.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2014
  10. three_bags_full

    three_bags_full Well-Known Member

    NOAA's three-day cone has it tracking toward the end of the Keys, and the five-day forecast says it'll track up the west coast of Florida and be somewhere near Lake City by Wednesday afternoon.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203113.shtml?5day#contents
     
  11. OnTheRiver

    OnTheRiver Active Member

    By the way, the little asshole's actually gaining strength while moving over land.

    So if you're along the Gulf Coast, seriously: Get your shit in order.
     
  12. FileNotFound

    FileNotFound Well-Known Member

    TV news on at 11. Tampa Bay freakout will begin at 11:06.
     
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