Think gas prices are high now? Wait until 2010

I'm asking you. Where? Where do you get it now? If you're like most everyone else in the U.S., you get it at the store. Where do the stores get the food? It's trucked across the country, an average of 1,300 miles per food item.

How's that going to happen if fuel prices are sky high or even rationed? Not to mention all the energy that goes into food creation. Plus there's a large percentage of farmland devoted to growing corn that goes into ethanol. How long before that can even be put back into use to grow food for people?

Maybe we can all turn our backyards into gardens -- if we even have backyards.

 

That's fine for some. But people in the major metros will be SOL.

And even hunters will eventually be in trouble. The North American deer populations were at their lowest levels in history during the Great Depression, thanks to people hunting for food.

 

Man, I thought I was being a negative Nelly. I bow down to TSP.

 

Yeah. I see no reason to be positive or, indeed, even pay my taxes anymore. It's going to be anarchy so why bother?

 

Gee, someday I'm going to die, so I might as well smoke a pack a day and stop eating food right now.

Or maybe I can try do things that help me enjoy the time I've got.

 

Sorry...but that didn't seem to match up with your earlier doomsday talk.

 

Exactly.

Let's say there is enough oil to sustain our way of life for 15 more years. There is no way in hell the biggest, brightest minds and countries in the world can't find an effective alternative renewable fuel within those years.

 

Well, one way would be that it simply can't be replicated on a mass scale and allow the current systems in place in the United States to continue. Another way would be that maybe there isn't enough oil to sustain our way of life for 15 years. Another way would be to say, yes, there are alternatives -- but the alternatives mean drastically altering the American way of life (i.e., suburban sprawl, massive transportation, our food systems).

Peak Oil is my all-time favorite doomsday scenario. I'm no more prepared for it than the alleycat that sleeps on my porch, though.

 

I'll post this just one more time, and warn all of you that I will shoot you in the head with my forearm crossbow for your gasonline!

 

Neither am I TSP. And all this $4-a-gallon stuff has me worried about not only me, but my three-month-old daughter.

Still, I just can't help but think governments, militaries, hell, minds like those behind Microsoft and Apple don't have something up their sleeve.

All it takes is a few people to buy something like a Prius, show the general population how much they're saving and voila, the revolution is on. Oil can still be used to transport and for mass transportation — for now.

By the same token, I've heard time again that there is as much oil — if not more — in Alberta, Canada than there is left in the Middle East. It's just that it takes more, much more, to refine it in Alberta because it's actually in or part of the sand/dirt and not just some big pool beneath the ground.

Another point, how much do hurricanes, broken pipelines, threat of war and on and on really affect the supply and demand. It seems like investors completely overplay these factors and send oil prices through the roof.

 

The free market works.

Increase supply via domestic drilling both in Alaska and offshore, and we control more of our own oil supply. We are dependent on oil, because oil is the cheapest, most effective energy source out there. No other alternative for automobiles is as energy-positive (it creates more energy than it uses to produce) and costs as little. Another alternative would be to quit being nice in Iraq and take control of some of that nation's oil to pay for the excursion in policing their streets and propping up their government, which would also be a substantial supply increase.

This current spike is largely due to OPEC being stingy, instability in the Middle East (which we're in the middle of) and speculation on the open market that prices are going up. At some point, the speculation bubble is going to burst, and increasing supply would kill OPEC's attempts at haranguing us.

There are alternatives -- oil and coal provide much of our electricity, but a cleaner, more efficient source is out there (nuclear, although the consequences are high if the reactor melts down). Wind and solar are impractical on a large scale. But those aren't going to power cars.

Plant-based fuels (ethanol, soy biodiesel) drive up the cost of food.

But better alternatives to oil are out there. The technology is being developed, but the demand for them hasn't been there because, for so many years, gas was extremely cheap (it was $0.89 a gallon a decade ago, hovered in the $1.00-1.25 range until 9/11, and then has been steadily increasing since then), and wasn't a massive hit on our pocketbooks. The free market dealt with that by buying bigger cars (SUVs) and moving farther away from the city (Indianapolis' suburban fringe expanded 10-20 miles in all directions between 1990 and 2008).

Until those sources are developed -- and they will be -- we have to reduce demand or increase supply to ease the price.

If there is some conspiracy to force us to use oil, it won't last long, because somebody will see an opportunity and make a fortune. Detroit got caught red-handed in the last two oil crises, because the Big Three were churning out more gas-guzzlers, like Chevy Subdivisions and Ford Gasigators while Honda and Toyota were introducing fuel-efficient cars and hybrids.

The Big Three has finally learned, and is working on fuel-cell technology. The Japanese automakers are working on plug-in hybrids that will be able to run on electricity for short trips (which is what most Americans make).

But America, for all of its kvetching, doesn't seem to care too much about high gas prices. They're more of an inconvenience to a lot of Americans, rather than a significant crimp in the way of life. Sure, SUV sales have gone down, but every time I drive by McDonald's, there is a line of 15 cars sitting outside idling in the drive-thru when it would be significantly faster (and use less gas) to shut off the car and go inside. Our outer-ring suburbs haven't turned into ghost towns -- people still commute 20 miles to work, rather than move back into the city closer to their jobs.

If the prices come back down, there is an environmental tradeoff -- size of cars will become bigger and the suburbs will grow and the impetus to develop alternative fuels will disappear. Then, whenever Hugo Chavez and his cronies want to cut off oil exports to the U.S.,

Where there are problems, the free market finds solutions. The free market will find a solution to the oil crisis -- the hydrogen fuel cell and plug-in cars are probably going to be it.

 

All of which was also true - in 1973.

When it comes to oil, and driving, and Americans, "The Market" has never fixed anything. Every time I see someone post the notion that we keep drilling short-term (North Slope, ANWR, Arctic Sea Floor, Gulf of Mexico) to buy some more time because we're only "10 to 15 years away from developing viable alternatives," I have to laugh. We've been 10 to 15 years away from developing viable alternatives since I got my drivers' license.

In 1973.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Maximum_Speed_Law