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The run on banks in Greece in progress; Euro collapse coming?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by The Big Ragu, Jun 13, 2012.

  1. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    If I ever said the world was coming to an end, I might have, but instead I'll just have to leave the moronic posts to you and others.
     
  2. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    Waiting on your detailed analysis of why everything's just fine and dandy ... we're all ears.
     
  3. deskslave

    deskslave Active Member

    The kind of classy response you look for in a moderator.

    Greek bank stocks were massively up today, albeit from a low base. I notice you didn't mention that. I guess it doesn't fit into your need to brag about how much smarter you are than all the rest of us put together.

    Seriously. We fucking get it already. We're all doomed. If only we could take your after-the-fact genius back to the past. Where's Doc Brown when you need him, eh Biff?
     
  4. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    If you think this thread is me bragging or telling you I am smarter than anyone, then you just have a bug up your ass about me, not about the things I have actually posted. Likewise, with the "We're doomed" and "Doc Brown" silliness. Sorry I answered someone putting words in my mouth. Those posts get old. I should have ignored it. You're right.

    But I did want to wish you luck with the Greek banking sector. Really? The index has lost 80 percent of its value in the last year. I don't really follow the day to day movements the way you apparently do, but my condolences on the beating you have taken if you have invested in Greek stocks. If you were bouyed by the news that they had a rally yesterday on expectation that Syriza won't win on Sunday, my advice (and I know, this will come off as me being a smarty pants) would be to not throw your life savings into Greek banking stocks. Something tells me -- and I am not sure why anyone would suggest such a thing! -- that Greek banks are not the best equity investments out there. But that is me being Doc Brown, or telling you we're all doomed or me bragging about how smart I am. At least that is the way you are going to read my posts.
     
  5. britwrit

    britwrit Well-Known Member

    Short of a catastrophic meltdown that drags us down with it, why should Americans care? I'm not being facetious here. Imagine that Europe sheds its allegedly cumbersome social benefits, starts living within its means and does all that wonderful stuff. What does the United States have then? A mean-and-lean economic fighting machine, right in our face, ready to eat the portions of our lunch that China and India and whoever haven't already scarfed up.

    I've lived abroad for a long time but really, in the end, the best way for Europe to go is down the mostly-wrong path. Whether it's for Spanish postmen to retire at 35 on full benefits or for Greece to start stripping the copper wiring out of public buildings to hawk for debt relief is the point in question. Anything that doesn't result in the return of Fascism is ok with me.
     
  6. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    Dear Britwrit: The interconnections of the world economy mean that economic failure in Europe will significantly impact the U.S. Also, the collapse of the European Union as a political entity, which would follow, would result in, if not Fascism, a wild increase in the nationalism which was the cause of WWI, which in turn was the cause of WW2.
    So it's best if this could be avoided.
     
  7. Stitch

    Stitch Active Member

    Remember we can't harm the bondholders in this. Think of the Swiss bankers. Does anyone not think of their plight?
     
  8. britwrit

    britwrit Well-Known Member

    The Euro might (possibly) go away. The EU as a political entity won't disappear in our lifetimes. Here on the ground, pretty much everybody loves the open borders and free trade. It's the common currency that nettles.

    America imports very little to Europe. And I've been hearing since I was born that it's an economic basketcase, stumbling along under its socialistic burdens. Let it stay that way. Does the United States want a powerful EU flexing its muscles on whatever social issue that takes its fancy on a given week?
     
  9. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    What Gee said.

    If there is a banking collapse in Europe, the fallout will be felt worldwide, and it will be ugly. It is the kind of thing Americans should have on their radar screen, because if Europe goes into a depression (it is already in recession), the U.S. will follow. The U.S. is particularly vulnerable, because even though attention has shifted away from the country, we are carrying a huge debt load and our politicians have shown no political will to deal with it. When S&P downgraded our debt, and those debt ceiling dramas were in the news, it didn't signal that the U.S. is on the brink of a financial meltdown, but it should have alerted people to the fact that we are creating a situation for ourselves that is similar to the one Europe has created. One little push from a European meltdown and the contagion will easily spread to the U.S.

    The other major thing is that Europe is the U.S.'s biggest trading partner. So our economies are very linked by trade.
     
  10. Stitch

    Stitch Active Member

    I don't think policy wonks really care about the EU "flexing" its muscles on social issues. The EU can't project any hard power, and it's ability to project soft power to Africa and parts of the Middle East. There is still a market for European goods and the Chinese do look for quality in their purchases, which is why German exports still do well.
     
  11. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    As I understand it, this is the real issue ... the right dominoes falling into place (and we're not talking a "black swan" event here, just a series of improbable but not unprecedented developments) and suddenly we're right back in a financial crisis. Greece, defaults, say, and Italy/Spain/Portugal start looking dicier. Ultimately credit default swaps (tied to those countries' debt) kick into play, setting off a wave of distress selling, followed by et cetera, et cetera.
     
  12. britwrit

    britwrit Well-Known Member

    I'm not in favor of a banking collapse and I don't think anybody sane is either. Beyond that, in the long term, does the United States want a strong and unified Europe? If radically cutting their debt burden (instead of, hey, let Germany pay for everything!) leads to this, why advocate it?

    Economic power has a way of shading over into political power. As in,we're going to boycott Isreal until it embraces the two-state option, what's America going to do about it? Or.... Yeah, it's time to do business with Iran.

    I realize this sounds, uh, sorta paranoid, but what's good for Europe isn't automatically good for the United States.
     
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