The Romney VP Pick -- Paul Ryan

Ryan, the pick of the Wall Street Journal editorial page, is certainly more experienced and more polished than Palin. However his budget proposals have proven to be controversial, even amongst religious figures.

The Catholic Ryan took heat from the "Nuns on the Bus" who went on tour last month to oppose his fiscal priorities, pointing the difference between his approach and the long tradition of Catholic social justice which is often centered around helping the poor.

Additionally, it is doubtful his fealty to the Ayn Rand school of economic thought will endear him much with independent voters (though he recently backtracked from her atheisitic leanings). He brings no foreign policy experience and isn't going to help with evangelicals.

 

Love him or hate him, anyone who compares him to Palin is a fucking idiot.

 

To be fair, he might not be wrong...

 

48 hours of bounce. Sunday morning TV blitz for Ryan, GOP types. Hard to put out opposing TV ads on a weekend. Poll bounce Monday morning can dominate the news cycle for a week.

 

I love the pick.

Is it enough for Romney to win? Probably not, but if it makes the economy the No. 1 issue going forward, then I'm all for it. It's not without some risks, but I think every VP candidate comes with baggage, just ask the president about that one...

If you're a republican, you're happy and relieved he didn't play it safe by taking someone like Pawlenty or do something really stupid like what happened four years ago, even though it wouldn't have made much of a difference who McCain picked.

Even if Romney-Ryan lose, it will help Ryan if he wants to run for president in the future.

 

Does he really provide that much of a bounce before the convention? I think most people aren't paying attention yet (most probably tune in after Labor Day) and most people outside of Wisconsin have no idea who Ryan is.

 

Yeah, I don't think Saturday is so bad.

 

They'll probably get a bit of a bounce, but at this point it doesn't really mean much until about three weeks after the last convention. But I think doing this now rather than immediately before the convention is the smarter way to go.

 

It's not a comparison of Ryan to Palin directly, it's a comparison of why the pick was made.

This was a pick by a candidate who was losing and could not find a way to pull ahead trying "change the game" with a VP pick. In that way, it's a direct comparison to Palin.

Ryan's not going to embarrass the Romney campaign like Palin did the McCain campaign, I don't think

But he's also not going to change the underlying dynamics.

 

With so many people getting rid of their land lines, I'm guessing polling is more difficult than ever.

 

I don't think the pick is the Hail Mary that Palin was. Romney wants the economy to be the biggest issue going forward and if that's what he wants, this was the right pick.

I don't think this pick is meant as a game-changer. It almost seems like a no-brainer, even though it does come with a bit of risk, especially if it hurts Mitt's numbers in Florida.

 

I read a really interesting piece on that in the National Journal, Mizzou. Many pollsters are saying that the response rate to telephone calls (land line or cell) is getting so low as to require the creation of a new methodology for polling altogether. In other words, they are questioning if their own data has any validity at all.
Another interesting poll factoid. There have only been half as many polls taken (national and individual state) on this election at this point as there were in 2008. Polls are expensive, and the news media, as we all know, has a very visceral reaction to spending money in pursuit of information.