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The Nats are dealing!

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by Moderator1, Jul 13, 2006.

  1. BYH

    BYH Active Member

    Uhhhhh, that is not, by any stretch of the imagination, redswriter.
     
  2. lantaur

    lantaur Well-Known Member

    Exactly ... that is pompous, egotistical cincinnati writer.
     
  3. Trey Beamon

    Trey Beamon Active Member

    Whoops. I saw one of his past columns posted, and swear someone called this guy redswriter...terrible mistake.
     
  4. I've been thinking about the recent Reds / Nationals trade and I've started to change my mind about it. Everyone (and I mean everyone) seems to think the Nationals absolutely fleeced the Reds in this trade but after careful consideration - I disagree. Let me make a few points.

    1. Everyone seems to stress that Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner were all former first round picks as if being a first round pick was a guarantee of success. Anyone who follows baseball knows that almost the opposite is true. Only a couple of players drafted in the first round in any given year even end up making it to the MLB level - never mind making an impact. This is a minor point and more of an indication of faulty analysis than anything - but please - BEING A FIRST ROUND PICK MEANS NOTHING!

    2. The Reds will save significant amounts of money with this trade. Nothing happens in a vacuum and baseball is first and foremost a business. The Reds just saved about $1.5 million that goes straight to the bottom line this season and next year they won't have to give big raised to Kearns and Lopez. The money that would have went to Kearns and Lopez (probably about $7 million combined for 2007) can now be used elsewhere. Don't scoff at the $7 million either. For a team like the Reds that's slightly better than 10% of total payroll (for less than 1% of the 25 man roster).

    3. Felipe Lopez is over-rated. He is supposed to be an offensive shortstop but this is what his numbers look like away from Cincinnati's bandbox:

    Lopez road 2006 - .241 BA / .330 OBP / .364 SLG / .694 OPS
    Lopez road 2005 - .277 BA / .335 OBP / .435 SLG / .771 OPS

    Those numbers won't make anyone mistake Lopez for Miguel Tejada.

    4. Austin Kearns may be even more over-rated. I'm starting to think that Kearns may just be the new Phil Plantier. Kearns is a young, power-hitting outfielder who is a local boy and who is very popular with the fans. He also is injury prone. That's the same description that could have been used for Phil Plantier. The Reds probably shipped him out of town partly because they don't want to have an arbitration headache with a fan-favorite player who may be fairly easily replaced with a cheaper player.

    5. This is probably the most important point. The Reds' biggest need was bullpen help. This trade tries to address the biggest need for a team that is right in the thick of things in the NL Central.
     
  5. Songbird

    Songbird Well-Known Member


    Like I said before, I like stats guys.
     
  6. Ohh - I've been rebuked by a guy who takes his name from an Olivia Newton-John song.

    Whatever shall I do?

    What really hurts is that it comes from you and I respect your baseball knowledge so much.
     
  7. Songbird

    Songbird Well-Known Member

    Lou, I'm praising you.

    Edit: I wrote the same thing a few weeks ago. You use stats to back up your arguments. I like that.
     
  8. MertWindu

    MertWindu Active Member

    I don't care if Xan was being straight with you, Chris, you write in your fucking blog and then copy and paste it here, using phrases like, "let me make a point," as if anyone short of the Mods has any ability to prevent it. Moron.
     
  9. steveu

    steveu Well-Known Member

    That $7 million in savings better be turned around and invested in players for 2007, then... that division isn't a high-payroll means success division by any means (Cubs... lol), but pocketing the $7 mil is a bad idea in this revenue-sharing age.
     
  10. Moderator1

    Moderator1 Moderator Staff Member

    Reds have given up three runs the past two games. Majewski has given up all three. Bray came in and got the win tonight.

    Of course, Kearns and Lopez ain't lighting it up just yet either.
    They've each come up once in a bases loaded situation and not delivered.
     
  11. My mistake - I apologize
     
  12. Moderator1

    Moderator1 Moderator Staff Member

    Lopez struck out three times and left seven guys on base.

    I'm less in love than I was 48 hours ago.
     
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