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The Jobs Bill bounce

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Dick Whitman, Sep 15, 2011.

  1. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    According to a Reuters poll out this morning, Obama is pretty much crushing most of the GOP candidates head-to-head, including Romney 49-43 and Perry 50-42. Perhaps the most staggering: Obama 54, Bachmann 36.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/14/usa-poll-ipsos-idUSS1E78D18420110914

    Obviously, it's early, and the pollsters said that the eventual Republican candidate's numbers will eventually rise as the voters get to know him or her.

    Also, Chuck Todd said that Notre Dame football's problem is they listen to the recruiting services too much.
     
  2. TrooperBari

    TrooperBari Active Member

    That's odd. I've heard from a couple outlets that some recruiting services will bump a player up a notch or two if they hear Notre Dame is recruiting said athlete. Seems kinda circular, that.
     
  3. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    The key number for the incumbent is his own number, not the opponent, at this point. 54 is of course excellent, 50 and 49 are acceptable.
     
  4. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    Moderators, can we arrange a debate between Chuck Todd and LongTimeListener regarding this issue? Hold it on "Morning Joe."
     
  5. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    In the same broadcast in which I harvested all of these nuggets, Paul Ryan spoke about the jobs bill. He's a pretty impressive guy - has the knack for repeating talking points while also coming off as sincere and engaging. He has to be a VP candidate, no?
     
  6. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    Adults, with 48% self identifying as Democrat & 39% identifying as Republican.

    [​IMG]

    http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=2011_09_14_04_32_fd78a69124c145e29ececa678095fc0f_PRIMARY.gif
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2014
  7. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    YF, those numbers don't mean much to me unless I know how that compares to the population as a whole.
     
  8. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    Per Rasmussen, in August of 2011, the proportion of adults who consider themselves "affiliated" with either major party is an even split at one-third Democrat, one-third Republican.
     
  9. suburbia

    suburbia Active Member

    I've also seen a poll that shows only 41% believe that Obama's jobs bill will create jobs, while 50% don't believe it will work.

    More damagingly, even Democrats in Congress are balking at the jobs plan, at least in its current form. Like many Republicans, they want the bill broken up into smaller parts - code for pass the tax cuts and spending cuts and ditch the rest of it.

    However much the voters like Obama personally and however much they may prefer him to the alternative put forth by the GOP, they just don't trust him to be able to fix the problems anymore. They see him as overmatched and helpless, even if its not really all his fault.

    I think we could see very low turnout for a Presidential election next year. Many voters, especially in the middle, may think we're screwed no matter what happens and figure it is not worth it to take the time to vote. Then it becomes a battle of base turnout, and we all know which party's base will be more motivated to show up at the polls next November.
     
  10. Uncle.Ruckus

    Uncle.Ruckus Guest

    The same Rasmussen who has been busted by Nate Silver multiple times for having a heavy Republican bias in his polls (until a week out, when he takes his foot off the scale)?

    Cite me a non-Rasmussen source, and you have something.
     
  11. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    Fair enough, Uncle.Ruckus ... wasn't aware of the Rasmussen criticisms. Gallup -- any issues with those guys? -- reported a breakdown of 31% Democrat and 29% Republican in December of 2010. I suspect the numbers haven't changed all that much since then. Even if they have, I have a hard time believing that the proportion of people identifying as Democrat has increased.
     
  12. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    48% self-identified Democrat and a +9 over Republicans does not reflect the reality on the ground. Depending on how you ask the questions, you are going to get an even party ID or worse for the Democrats.

    They are presumably using the numbers from the last elections exit polls, which were two-decade highs for Democrats.
     
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