The First 2012 SJ.Com Presidential Poll

Unless war with Iran breaks out -- thus driving gas to $5-$7 a gallon -- I'm confident that Obama will win because:

1. It's a 99% v. 1% election, and the GOP's chosen a 1% posterboy.
2. Obama leads among women by anywhere from 12 to 19 percent, depending on the poll you choose.
3. Obama leads among Hispanics, according to a poll I saw last night, something like 80 to 14 percent.
4. Obama is just a much better communicator and campaigner.
5. The GOP ground game has deteriorated drastically in recent months. http://news.yahoo.com/why-romney-ground-game-lacking-145444676.html

 

Obama.

I don't invest much of myself into politics, but like J&E said, I think people are clamoring for a change, there's just not a strong enough candidate to bring it about. Essentially it comes down to Obama being the lesser of two evils, I think.

 

Obama:Clinton::Romneyole. Unless there's a massive downturn in the economy, I don't see Romney attracting any votes that didn't go to McCain four years ago.

 

If election is held today, Obama.

Vote is subject to change.

 

This was pretty much going to be my exact reasoning. Unless Obama is caught with a live girl or a dead boy, I can't see how he loses.

 

In Bob Cook's absence (thus far), I will cite his favorite factor: Romney's approval rating plummets into the basement with every new state he visits. People just don't like him.

Obama got 365 electoral votes last time, with 53 percent of the popular vote. This time he gets to about 56 percent and pushes 400 EVs.

 

Big Ragu, sorry about that. I fail at reading comprehension (and shouldn't be posting while covering really boring meetings).

 

Obama. I think a lot of people can't get past Romney's Mormonism and those who can aren't finding him a good enough candidate.

 

I'll vote for him in November, but whoever said Romney reminds them of Kerry is dead on. I think 400 electoral votes is a stretch, but unless the economy takes a nosedive (which I don't expect) Obama wins re-election fairly comfortably.

 

Obama will win.

All of the reasons stated above, re: the economy. How the Supremes rule on the health care issue could possibly change my opinion.

 

Obama. Because the GOP has done nothing the last four years except play defense instead of going on offense (read: offering alternative programs) and hasn't reigned in the birthers and other party extremists.