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The end of the 300-game winner?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Simon_Cowbell, Jul 31, 2007.

?

Tom Glavine, at some point, will become the 23rd 300-game winner; When will the next 300th win by a

  1. Less than 6 years

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 6-10 years

    3 vote(s)
    15.0%
  3. 10-15 years

    5 vote(s)
    25.0%
  4. 15-20 years

    3 vote(s)
    15.0%
  5. 20 years or more

    1 vote(s)
    5.0%
  6. never again

    8 vote(s)
    40.0%
  1. Captain_Kirk

    Captain_Kirk Well-Known Member

    I think Johnson will get to 300.

    And he'll be the last one for a long time. And maybe forever.

    best current shot: I'll go with Tim Hudson. 130 wins, just turned 32.

    As for Clemens, I really wish he hadn't pissed away the first two months of the season the past couple years. The guy is 23 wins from passing Christy Mathewson and Grover Alexander for 3rd on the all time wins list. If he had those 4 months of starts, it's probably more like 15 or less. Say what you will about Roger, but considering the modern game (5 man rotations, starters rarely finishing) and if he were to get to 3rd, it would be one of the more remarkable accomplishments I'll see in my lifetime.
     
  2. hockeybeat

    hockeybeat Guest

    Glavine's the last of the 300-game winners.

    Johnson is breaking down physically and he's not the dominant power pitcher anymore. He's very hittable. Mussina is closing in on forty and is more miss than hit these days.

    After that, the sport is becoming far too compartmentalized for there to ever be another 300 game winner. Starters go six, maybe seven innings, then managers trot out middle reliever after setup man until it's time to go to the closer.
     
  3. heyabbott

    heyabbott Well-Known Member

    The following players are the active wins leaders for players 30 & under:
    Zito (29) 109 wins
    Oswalt (29) 108
    Javier Vazquez (30) 108
    Roy Halladay (30) 106
    Mark Buehrle (28) 105
    Mark Mulder (29) 103
    C.C. Sabathia (26) 94
    Jon Garland (27) 90
    Johan Santana (28) 89
    Jeff Weaver (30) 88


    The 2 other youngest players in the top 100 active wins are Dontrelle Willis (25) 65 wins & Jake Peavy (26) 67.
     
  4. spnited

    spnited Active Member


    My bet is Johnson never wins another game... 3 back surgieries, will be 44 in September...DONE!

    Hudson...130 at age 32. So if he wins 17 a year until he's 42... who are you kidding.
     
  5. Bob Cook

    Bob Cook Active Member

    I have put (on the record) Oswalt, Buehrle, Santana, Zambrano and Sabathia as most likely to win 300. They started their careers young, they're still relatively young, and they have little to no history of arm trouble (especially since Zambrano stopped "emailing his brother"), so any of them pitching at 41 or 42 is not out of the question. Oh, I also added to my list Jon Garland, who could be the Don Sutton of his generation, in terms of decided nonlegend to make it to 300. I wouldn't call him likely, but he shares the same traits as the other five.

    Also, while the five-man rotation might limit chances to win, the vastly increased use of relievers also expands chances to win. Starters that 30 years ago would have been tired out and perhaps blown eighth- or ninth-inning leads can watch comfortably as others finish the game for them. Or in the case of Buehrle and Garland this year, watch as others blew the game on their behalf.

    It not only can increase the number of wins, but also the number of decisions. To add to the Blyleven-for-Hall-of-Fame discussion, not only was he hampered by being on some lousy teams, but in one of the years he was on a good one (the 1979 Pirates), he made 37 starts, pitched 240 innings -- and went 12-5. He must have led the league in either departing when the game was tied, or games blown by reliever, or games he left losing that his teammates later won.

    True, Blyleven had a lot of seasons earlier in his career where decisions were not the issue, but it seems like a pitcher with 30 starts these days could well have an opportunity for more wins, if he's good (of course) and if his bullpen is worth a damn.

    By the way, talk about pitchers with lousy teams -- Tommy John is a cinch HOF-er if he hadn't pitched on such wretched White Sox teams early in his career. Surely, on another team he could have gotten those magical 12 wins that would have put him in the HOF.
     
  6. spnited

    spnited Active Member

    I think the vastly increased use of relievers (mediocre middle and set-up men to be exact) decreases the probability of another 300-game winner.
    If Willie Randolph doesn't totally fuck up and overmanage with his middle- and set-up relievers last night, Tom Glavine wins his 300th.
    This will happen again and again and again -- shit like Guillermo Mota depriving good pitchers of deserved wins.

    I repeat, there is no one after Glavine currently pitching in the major leagues who will reach 300 wins.
     
  7. Chi City 81

    Chi City 81 Guest

    Carlos Zambrano (26) has 78 wins.
     
  8. BYH

    BYH Active Member

    I get a kick out of the perception the 300-game winner is more of a dying breed now than it was earlier. Presuming Glavine gets no. 300, he'll be the ninth guy to reach 300 wins since 1982. There were 14 300-game winners in history before that...and only three guys reached 300 wins between 1925 and 1981.

    Might we be heading for a similiar drought? Sure. But this generation has three 300-game winners who pitched in the five-man era, and it's not like Gaylord Perry, Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Don Sutton and Nolan Ryan took all their turns in the four-man era.

    I still think Johnson makes it to the finish line, wheezing the whole way, and it'll be a while after that before we see another 300-game winner. But I bet this upcoming drought is a lot shorter than the one between Early Wynn (1963) and Perry (1982).
     
  9. goalmouth

    goalmouth Well-Known Member

    Assuming his surgery goes all right, how does Chris Carpenter project for 300?
     
  10. spnited

    spnited Active Member

    Not even close.

    100 wins, turns 33 next April, coming off surgery. Might not even make 200.
     
  11. alanTdot

    alanTdot Member

    Halladay? Plays hurt, wants the ball ... .
     
  12. spnited

    spnited Active Member


    106 wins (maybe 112-114 by the end of the season) at age 30.
    NOPE!
     
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