The end of the 300-game winner?

On average, there has been one every 5.75 years.

Unless Randy Johnson miraculously cobbles together 16 more, it is going to be a while before we see it again.

 

Randy Johnson will get there unless his arm falls off. He's a lefty with a pulse.

Yes, it may be a while, but it'll happen again. Yes, pitchers are getting fewer starts, but at the same time their longevity is incredible. Kenny Rogers could get 2 or 3 more good years after this one and get to 250-260, then who knows? Pedro's younger, he may have a good shot if his health permits it.

More than likely your next 300 man will be somebody like Bartolo Colon (146 wins) or Roy Oswalt (108). That could be another 10 years.

 

How many herniated discs can he gut through, though?

If they had that as a bet in Vegas, I'd bet under the 15.5 wins for the rest of his career.

 

Johnson's like a race car blowing its engine a few feet short of the finish line. Not sure he will get there.

 

I think this surgery ends Johnson's career, despite what he says.

There is no other current pitcher of any age who can win 300.
Glavine might be the last ever!

 

Colon?





Colon?





I mean, Colon?


???

 

Bartolo Colon is 34 years old. He's won 146 games in his first ten and a half seasons in the majors. So if you think he's going to pitch 10 more years and keep the stuff to win 154 more games, well, pass the chronic. At his career average of about 14 wins per year, he'd need to go 11 to get there.

Oswalt may have an outside shot, but he's going to be 30 before this season ends, and he's currently averaging 15 wins a year. At that pace, he'd have to go another 13 years to get to 300, and that's assuming he stays healthy and on a 15 win/year clip.

The guy that may have the best shot at this point is C.C. Sabbathia. He's only 27 years old, he's got 94 wins in an organization that hasn't been good since he got there, and he's averaging about 14 wins per season in his six and a half seasons in the bigs. At that pace, he needs 14 years to win 206 more. But with Cleveland getting better and C.C. not yet to his prime, you'd figure his averages may increase.

Likewise, Mark Buehrle is only 28, and he has 105. He'd need to pitch another 13 or 14 years to get there.

Basically, what it adds up to, is that while there may be a guy or two with a (very) outside shot of making it to 300, there isn't anyone who's on a good pace to get there. All of those guys would have to stay pretty healthy and pitch into their early forties to get there.

 

The only 300 Colon is topping is on the scale.

 

Johnson could hold on for another season or two if he rebounds well from surgery ... after that, it'll have to be one of the younger studs coming up, like a Verlander.

 

What about Zambrano?

 

Carlos Zambrano.

This is a bit of a stretch at this point, but whatever.

He's averaged 15 wins the past four years and will blow that away this season. He's got 78 at this point and he's 26.

If he can keep up his pace, he could get there when he's 41 or 42, which isn't out of the realm of possibility.