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Tebow's success explained with stats

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by poindexter, Nov 29, 2011.

  1. da man

    da man Well-Known Member

    The stats that explain Denver's turnaround are really simple.

    Orton, 5 games, 7 interceptions, 2 lost fumbles
    Tebow, 6 starts, 1 interception, 1 lost fumble

    Not coincidentally, both Tebow's turnovers came in the same game -- the one he lost

    It ain't brain surgery, people.
     
  2. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    Exception to the rule.

    Hell, I didn't think they'd be all that good WITH Manning. I put a $250 bet on the Colts winning fewer than 10 games before I found out he was done for the season. Never imagined they'd suck this bad, but I'm glad they do.
     
  3. Bodie_Broadus

    Bodie_Broadus Active Member

    Tebow has only completed 45 percent of his passes? That's terrible.
     
  4. Brian

    Brian Well-Known Member

    I think they were at best a nine-win team. But they aren't going to win a game this season.

    But let's say Tebow is for real. I don't believe it but let's assume that. If you build your team around the zone read and Tebow gets hurt, you're just as screwed as the Colts are without Manning. No one other than Vick could do what Tebow is doing. And Vick's ribs would look like broken straws if he did.
     
  5. Shelbyville Manhattan

    Shelbyville Manhattan Well-Known Member

    Long-time lurker who finally felt obliged to jump into the fray:

    During Orton's starts, the Broncos played without multiple defensive starters:

    CB Champ Bailey: missed Weeks 2-4
    DE Elvis Dumervil: played with one functional arm because of a shoulder injury in Week 1, missed weeks 2-3, played with one functional arm Weeks 4-5
    LB D.J. Williams: missed weeks 1-3
    DT Marcus Thomas: missed weeks 1-4

    Multiple players plus their defensive coordinator have admitted the installation of the team's new defensive scheme, already behind schedule because of the lockout, was further held back by those injuries, and that the defense didn't assume its intended form until Tebow's first start, after a Week 6 bye.

    It wasn't the same defense with Orton starting. It wasn't even close.

    That being said, Tebow does what other quarterbacks with stellar defenses have done: be a game manager. He doesn't take unnecessary chances; most of the high-risk passes he throws are at least 35 yards downfield into a jump-ball situation. If the pass is intercepted, it's basically a punt in terms of field-position impact.

    Denver's strategy is to use its defense to hang around, then capitalize off Tebow's late-game success while exploiting a defense that is worn down from defending a run-heavy offense. Most of their big runs (15-plus) during their four-game winning streak have come after halftime (10 of 14); seven of those 14 runs have come in the fourth quarter or overtime.

    Most of the absolutist shriekers in these parts (I'm near Denver) want to make the Broncos' recent run of play all about Tebow. It wouldn't happen without the defense, but it's also Tebow and the offense being put into position where its exposure and risk is minimized and his strengths emphasized while he tries to figure out how to be an NFL quarterback. It probably isn't sustainable, but after five years of descent into embarrassment, it's cleaned up the toxic atmosphere within and around the team, so it's done something good for them until they can figure out a long-term quarterback plan.
     
  6. poindexter

    poindexter Well-Known Member

    This is the best argument I've read against a team building around Tebow.

    Much better than the "Tebow dishonors pro football" and "I know more than you".
     
  7. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    Hell of a job, newbie.

    Again, it's not that Tebow isn't playing a role. But the defense is playing much better and the coaching staff is doing a heck of a job adjusting to the strengths of its current team.

    One reason Tebow isn't turning the ball over like Orton did is because he isn't being asked to do the things Orton was being asked to do.

    Anybody who argues that the turnaround is all Tebow is simply displaying their ignorance.
     
  8. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    At least you used the word simple, as in overly simplistic.
     
  9. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    You would be very hard-pressed, at least on this board, to find anyone who says this is "all Tebow," other than the facetious references to channeling God. Don't mischaracterize the argument. What you will find are plenty of people saying this has nothing to do with Tebow, he is keeping the Broncos down, and they are worse with him than they would be with Orton.
     
  10. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    Talk about mischaracterizing an argument, you just did it right there. Maybe one poster, if any, said it has nothing to do with Tebow. I don't remember anybody saying they are worse off than they would be with Orton. But hey, don't let the actual arguments of those who disagree with you get in the way.

    And nobody said it is all Tebow? Really? Check out da man's post that I just quoted.

    My argument all along is that Tebow's role in this has been overrated. The defense is healthier and playing much better. The offense is controlling the clock more, but it is scoring less.

    There is also an argument to be made that the schedule was tougher in the first five games with the Packers, and Bengals and Titans teams that started fast before slumping.
     
  11. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    RickStain said on last week's NFL thread that the Broncos are less likely to win with Tebow than with Orton, FYI. There have been other declarations by others, but that was the most inequivocal one.

    As far as the post you quoted, it was overly simplistic, but it also cited the number 1 factor in the turnaround: turnovers. That's always the most important factor.
     
  12. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    Yet another overly simplistic argument. They do tend to keep turning up over and over again from the Tebow enthusiasts. Turnovers are important, but not the only thing that matters. And the reduction in turnovers isn't all about Tebow. A big part of the credit for that goes to the changes the coaches have made and the improved play by the defense. If the offense needs fewer points to win, it takes pressure of the quarterback.

    And it was Rick I had in mind as the one poster. Otherwise, you were misrepresenting those you disagree with just as you accused them of doing the same.
     
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