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Super Bowl XLII, against the spread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Simon_Cowbell, Jan 26, 2008.

?

Who will cover?

  1. Patriots -12.5

    8 vote(s)
    33.3%
  2. Giants +12.5

    16 vote(s)
    66.7%
  1. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    Sports betting is FULL of just-misses. You think it's an accident that good sportsbettors are more often than not on the right side of those games?

    There can be a lot of money made on the right prop bets, and the OT/Super Bowl bet is a strong one, especially on a double-digit-spread game. Bettors are flat-out crazy to ignore it.
     
  2. Simon_Cowbell

    Simon_Cowbell Active Member

    There have been five by-the-hair-on-your-chin misses the past 12 games.

    How many just-misses for OT were there before SB XXX?

    Two (V and XXIII).

    If you want to put up 1200 and me 100 for a 12-year contract coming up here, I guarantee you I will be AT LEAST even.

    Not worth employing that bet going forward, thought it sounds nice in a column.
     
  3. trifectarich

    trifectarich Well-Known Member

    You'll go broke getting involved in bets like the OT: laying $12 to win $1 won't get you very far at all. This is a recipe for disaster.
     
  4. Football_Bat

    Football_Bat Well-Known Member

    Give me the G-Men and all of those points. What's the O/U?
     
  5. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    From the Las Vegas Sun column I cited:

    OVERTIME: Odds of minus-900 to minus-1000 that there will be no overtime in the Super Bowl are readily available in Las Vegas each year. In the NFL’s past five regular seasons, 75 games, or 5.9 percent of all games, have gone into overtime. Presumably, games with point spreads as large as 12 are less likely to go into overtime than games with more typical single-digit point spreads, but we’ll be conservative and stick with the 5.9 percent figure. That equates to a “true,” or no-vigorish money line of minus-1595 (risk $15.95 to win $1) that the Super Bowl will not go into overtime. If you lay minus-900 on a prop with a true price of minus-1595, you’re making a bet with a 4.6 percent edge against the house.

    That's what it's all about. Of course laying $10 or $12 to win $1 looks shaky on its face, but the object of the game is looking for an edge and the OT prop bet has it if you find the right price.

    Simon, I wouldn't make your hypothetical bet because I wouldn't know the pointspreads of the next 12 Super Bowls in advance. Chances are the majority would be 7-point spreads or smaller, and those lend themselves, in general, to more OT games.

    But, again, I like this play given this matchup. I'd put up $100 against your $10. Find us a middleman.
     
  6. Simon_Cowbell

    Simon_Cowbell Active Member

    Somewhere, Louis Renault is chuckling.
     
  7. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    Louis Renault wants to know if you'll take the action for Sunday.
     
  8. Simon_Cowbell

    Simon_Cowbell Active Member

    I'd put up a Hammy.
     
  9. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    That's fantabulous. Check your pm's.
     
  10. TheSportsPredictor

    TheSportsPredictor Well-Known Member

    I'll be the middleman. Send me your cash right now!
     
  11. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    For those of us sweating this one NOT going overtime...whew.

    My congrats to those who got on the NYG moneyline!
     
  12. Cousin Jeffrey

    Cousin Jeffrey Active Member

    I took the Giants moneyline and points two weeks ago and felt much better about my decision this week when I saw the NY Post staff go overwhelmingly for the Pats and Bill Simmons predict a blowout.
     
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