Stanford or App. State? Which upset is bigger?

People are still giving App State too much credit. They are a very good I-AA team, but they did lose to Wofford two weeks ago and they have had some other close calls.
They clearly aren't a dominant I-AA team, so they had no business beating a No. 5 I-A team at their place.
That makes it a much bigger upset than what we saw yesterday.

 

If you put aside name recognition difference between Stanford and Appalachian State and actually look at the teams involved, it's clear that the two upsets are very close.

 

Good question, and I've thought about it ...

I still say App. State is the biggest in my lifetime.

You've got to remember that even the dreggest of Pac-10 dregs can beat most any team in the nation on a good day. Pac-10, Big 11, Big 12, SEC are stud conferences. Yes, Stanford isn't very good, but the Cardinal have been solid many years. They just happen to be in a down spiral at this point.

I don't think I'd put Stanford in my top 10 for upsets just because it was a Pac-10 game. yes, 40-point spreads are telling of many things, and I still have no idea how USC lost (haven't read gamers yet; any links?). It was a mammoth upset, but not on the same scale as App. State's once-in-a-lifetime shocker in the Big House.

 

Montana got blown out by Iowa. But New Hampshire blew out Northwestern last year. So it goes both ways. To use one game as an indictment on the whole division is silly.

 

Stanford was a bigger upset. The past couple of years, Stanford couldn't have beaten many 1-AA teams. Also the quarterbacks first start and they've been blown out in each Pac 10 game before USC.

 

Thank you.

A lot of people seem to be using the 41-point line as a reflection of the disparity in talent when, in actuality, it has little to do with the expected result and almost everything to do with enticing gamblers to bet. That's what the line is there for.

It had nothing to do with USC being expected to win by 41 -- anybody who has seen USC play this year knows they weren't going to do that, no matter how bad Stanford was. The Trojans have struggled in every game they've played this year.

The 41-point line was about gambling, gambling, gambling. It had nothing to do with Stanford's status as an underdog. It was about giving the house a better chance to win. Nothing more.

 

The oddsmakers' line is an accurate reflection of the public's perceived difference between two teams, and isn't that what we're talking about when we consider how big an upset it is -- how far off our perceptions were? Going into that game, Stanford was considered just about as unlikely to beat USC as Appy State was to beat Michigan. The only thing that makes the USC game seem like a lesser surprise is that Stanford has a bigger name than Appalachian St.

 

Betting line certainly isn't the end-all be-all, but it's a stronger indicator than APPY STATE IS A I-AA AND STANFORD IS A PAC-10 TEAM, SINCE I-AAs NEVER BEAT TOP 25 TEAMS AND INTRACONFERENCE UPSETS HAPPEN ALL THE TIME, APPY MUST BE A BIGGER UPSET. History is nice for background, but what Stanford and App did in the last 50 years doesn't mean a hill of beans as far as what's a bigger upset in 2007.

 

Correct. And in 2007, USC simply isn't a great team -- John David Booty and Chauncey Washington haven't played that well this season. If we're going to compare Stanford's roster of fail to Appy State's lineup of charmions, we should also compare the type of talent Michigan brought back to the downgrade in USC's skill position players.

 

Mayhaps USC isn't the USC of last year, but I'd say the gap between them and Stanford was still wider than then one between Appalachian State and Michigan.

 

Bullshit. Last time I checked USC, Stanford and Michigan could all carry 85 guys on scholarship. App State can carry 63. There is no fucking way the talent gap between USC and the Fighting Trees is wider than the gap between App State and Michigan. It's the height of stupidity to suggest that.

The reason I-AA teams usually get beat by I-As is that they aren't deep enough to keep from wearing down in a 60-minute game. Their 1s might match up with an I-A team's 1s but their 2s aren't even close to the level of a I-A team's back-ups. Eventually the I-AA team just runs out of gas.

That's what makes what App State did so stunning. They went toe-to-toe with a upper division full scholarship BCS program and beat them on their own field.

 

These gentlemen speak the truth. Appy State is far, far bigger upset.

You watch ... Michigan-Ohio State will be for the Big Ten title again. And I hate that, but the way things are shaking it out, it's going to happen.