Sports Illustrated: Carlos Beltran: Hall of Famer?

Whoa, did Dick really just drop the crankypants bomb?

 

This. A thousand times this.

 

The same magazine said Hines Ward was a HOF lock.

I hate when they use stolen bases as a benchmark for anything. Yes, it shows versatility, but I don't think 300 career stolen bases does much to boost anyone's HOF candidacy.

When he has 400+ homers and 1500 RBI it becomes a more viable debate.

 

I love HOF debates, but I don't think there's really anything to debate on Beltran at this point...

 

Beltran's HOF chances come down to whether or not he has three more years at or above his career average year.

If he does he'll have 1,500+ runs and RBIs, 2,500+ hits, 400+ HR's and good rate numbers. What are the chances he has three years of at a minimum .280, .350, .480 with near 30 HR's and 100 R/RBI? Very slim considering his age (35) and injury history. Possible? Yes. Likely? No. I'd put it at 10 percent or so.

 

Don't you think it does when his percentage is as high as it is, though?

I'm surprised at the hostile reaction to this thread. I mean, I can understand the hostile reaction to Sports Illustrated, I suppose. But some seem pissed I started a thread based on an opinion piece that ran in the nation's most widely read and prestigious sports magazine. I understand that it isn't Lindsay Lohan's latest exploit or pro wrestling, but seemed like a legitimate topic for discussion on a message board for sports journalists.

 

Folks seem to say that about every HOF thread started.

And why are you putting so much stock into his stolen base percentage?

 

Because I - and Albert Chen, apparently - think it's important to be efficient in that category. If you get thrown out as often as you are successful, what's the point?

I don't think it's an argument-ender by any means. And I think that he ultimately falls in the Paul Konerko work-to-do category right now. But the stolen base percentage is merely another quiver in his bag.

 

I don't think anyone will look at his stolen base percentage and say "That guy's a Hall of Famer!" The percentage isn't what should matter at all.

 

At all?

 

No. Why should it? The number of steals is what you should be looking at, not the percentage.

 

Well, I would think both, no? If you steal a lot of bases at a high success rate, then that's better than stealing a lot of bases at a low success rate. You're taking bases while not giving away outs.