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Rudy's Campaign Hits Another Bump

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Fenian_Bastard, Jun 25, 2007.

  1. Jones

    Jones Active Member

    I've got One Hundred U.S. Dollars that says McCain wins the nomination. You can have the field. First taker only. I'm serious. And I expect to be paid.
  2. Chi City 81

    Chi City 81 Guest

    Done. I think.
  3. Jones

    Jones Active Member

    No thinking, only doing. If you want it, Doc, agreed.
  4. zeke12

    zeke12 Guest

    Good money after bad, Jonesy.

    He looks old and tired and that war is going to be an albatross around his neck.

    The only way I can see him doing it is if he has a very public change of heart and runs as an anti-war Republican.

    Then he might win in a landslide.
  5. Jones

    Jones Active Member

    Zeke, McCain has rocks around him, including a bunch of the people who got Bush -- an avowed idiot -- elected twice. U.S. Elections, these days, are less about candidates and more about machines, and McCain has a smooth-running machine. The press still likes him. The majority of Republicans support his war stance. Plus, there's no one else.

    I think he'll have trouble winning the general election, but McCain's got the nod.

    If Doc doesn't want the bet, you can take it, if you'd like.
  6. Chi City 81

    Chi City 81 Guest

    OK, I'll take the bet. Can I propose an addendum that the winner use some of the money to (partially) finance a night of drinking?
  7. zeke12

    zeke12 Guest

    Getting Bush elected after eight years of peace and prosperity is a completely different proposition than getting a 70-plus-year-old hawk elected after six years of a ridiculously unpopular war.

    But I do take your point about organizations...
  8. Jones

    Jones Active Member

    Well, Doc, that was a given, without any of that partially shit. Fully, completely.

    Done and done.
  9. PopeDirkBenedict

    PopeDirkBenedict Active Member

    It pains me to say this as a McCain supporter, but I agree with Doc and Zeke on this one, Jonesey. I think you are underestimating the anger the GOP base has toward the current immigration bill and their ire is directed at equal parts Bush and McCain. Between the war and immigration, McCain has become what would have been unthinkable seven years ago: Bush's heir. Only problem is that the 27% of America that would want a third Bush term doesn't like McCain. McCain has spent the last year saying he would rather be right than president -- it is about to turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    And I stand by my belief that Hillary will be the Dem nominee and the 44th President of the United States. To those who say she can't win, is she really any more unacceptable to the general electorate than John Kerry was in 2004? In many ways, Obama has given Hillary his best shot. He has gotten Messiah-like press, has raised a ton of dough and has made a series of well-recieved speeches. And all of this has resulted in Hillary taking an even wider lead in the polls. She has the money, the organization and the ability not to make major missteps. I realize that it seems early, but if Obama isn't going to narrow the race now, when will he narrow it?

    Look at the states won by John Kerry (ME, NH, VT, MA, CT, NY, PA, NJ, MD, DE, DC, MI, IL, WI, MN, HI, CA, OR, WA). Are you telling me that Hillary cannot carry those states plus Ohio, Florida, Missouri or New Mexico? Birdscribe, you said that Hillary won't win a state south of Maryland. Last I checked, John Kerry didn't win any of the Confederacy and still came within a couple thousand votes of being president. And I think Clinton's team would be foaming at the mouth to face Romney. If Mitt gets the nod, I fully expect him to try to use his moderate gubernatorial experience to run to the center and Hillary's team will have field day asking for the real Mitt Romney to stop forward.

    Zeke, I agree on Fred Thompson. Right now, he reminds me of a cross between Wes Clark and Larry Hagman's character in Primary Colors.
  10. zeke12

    zeke12 Guest

    Here's my guess, Pope. Obama can narrow the gap when a few of the other Dems drop out.

    Hillary's numbers are fantastic right now. But are any of the supporters of Biden, Edwards, Richardson, et al. going to go Hillary's direction if and when their guys drop out? Hell, Gore is polling in the high teens nationally among Dems, and he isn't running. I have to think those voters are going to break for the Senator for Illinois.

    Everyone in America has known who Hillary is for 15 years now. That translates into great early numbers. But I don't see where she has much room to pick up much more. As long as he keeps raising this kind of money and putting together an extensive organization, he's in the game...

    I feel what you're saying, though. The corner Obama has painted himself in is that he is truly trying not to run a negative campaign. That will be very helpful in the general, but he needs to find some ways to chip away at Hillary right now, and both campaigns seem content to stay off each other and basically just try and soak all the oxygen out of the room. That benefits Obama, because it's better to make it to the final two, but it benefits Hillary way more.
  11. PopeDirkBenedict

    PopeDirkBenedict Active Member

    I think it depends on the candidate. I think Biden's voters will go for Hillary (both represent kind of a mainstream status quo), Richardson's voters will go more for Hillary than Obama (Richardson is very much a DLC-type of candidate) and Edwards voters will split evenly along class lines (blue collars to Hillary, white collars to Obama). The voters pining for Gore are more likely to go Obama.

    I think Obama faces a similiar challenge to McCain in 2000. Hillary's superior money and national organization will make it very hard for Obama to compete on Tsunami Tuesday (while SC gave McCain a serious body blow, it was Super Tuesday that delivered the knockout punch). And Obama faces a situation that Hillary does not. If Hillary wins two out of the big three (IA, NH, SC), then everyone else is cooked and she might as well start writing her convention speech. I believe that if she wins Iowa, then it is game over. Iowa represents the most partisan, most anti-war and most committed wing of the Democratic Party. If she can win over that crowd, she has it made. But if Obama wins two out of the big three, I still think Hillary's name recognition, money and organization can keep her in the race.
  12. zeke12

    zeke12 Guest

    Pope --

    It could certainly play out that way. It depends on how many people are supporting fringe candidates because they really like their guy and how many are simply anti-Hillary.

    There are plenty of anybody-but-her people out there, even on the Democratic side. And just in the interest of full disclosure, I'm not one of them. But she isn't my top candidate, either.
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