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Roy Oswalt: Hall of Famer?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Dick Whitman, Jan 14, 2012.

  1. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    If that's the kind of post that five seconds of thought lead to, might I recommend six seconds next time?

    Oh, well. I'm off to have a Saturday. I look forward to your disappearing act at, oh, about 11 p.m. EST tonight. Probably well before, actually.

    Go Pats.
     
  2. Della9250

    Della9250 Well-Known Member

    Right now, I'd say no but he's very, very borderline.

    but if he pitches well for three more years he'd probably move past borderline.
     
  3. jr/shotglass

    jr/shotglass Well-Known Member

    Of course, I don't think that's going to happen. He showed clear signs of career decline last season.
     
  4. Herbert Anchovy

    Herbert Anchovy Active Member

    I am not trying to be inflammatory, but I can't believe anyone would cite wins to bolster a Hall case in 2012 AD.

    It's like those old medieval doctors talking about the four humours having to be in balance.
     
  5. Della9250

    Della9250 Well-Known Member

    And when you only have 11 years of work, it better be transcendent.
     
  6. doodah

    doodah Guest

    If you don't mind me asking, what else do you look at if stats aren't the whole picture? Because they paint a pretty marvelous one 99.9 percent of the time if you use the right ones.
     
  7. sgreenwell

    sgreenwell Well-Known Member

    sssshhhhh. You don't want to upset the restless natives...

    All needling aside, I don't think Oswalt is a HoF from a stats or narrative case. If he has a great 3 to 5 seasons to end his career, then maybe he forces his way into the conversation. But I think a lot of voters probably see Mussina as a borderline case, and Oswalt strikes me as Mussina-lite.
     
  8. dooley_womack1

    dooley_womack1 Well-Known Member

    Oswalt's walks are .8 the value of other pitchers' walks
     
  9. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    Never mind wins. Oswalt still has to pitch 200 more innings in his career just to pass Sandy Koufax, who famously retired at age 30. (In fact, the only HOF starter with fewer innings pitched than Oswalt's 2,154 right now is Dizzy Dean at 1,967.1 IP.)

    I think he's a fine pitcher, and I'd want him on my team anytime. But he's not even remotely close to HOF consideration.
     
  10. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    There are 25 Hall of Fame pitchers who were active during the CYA era (not including Bob Feller, who retired in 1956, the first year the Cy Young was awarded.)

    Ten of them did not win the Cy Young:

    - Bob Lemon (who retired in 1958, but did win 20 games in 1956)
    - Robin Roberts (who was mostly ineffective after 1956, but did pitch 10 more years after that)
    - Juan Marichal (de facto runner-up at least three times, but the ballot then was only first-place votes and he never got any)
    - Hoyt Wilhelm (never close)
    - Jim Bunning (highest finish: 2nd, 1967)
    - Phil Niekro (highest finish: 2nd, 1969)
    - Don Sutton (highest finish: 3rd, 1976)
    - Nolan Ryan (highest finish, 2nd, 1973)
    - Goose Gossage (highest finish: 3rd, 1980)
    - Bert Blyleven (highest finish: 3rd, 1984-85)
     
  11. Human_Paraquat

    Human_Paraquat Well-Known Member

    I would like to hear the reasoning of anyone who will vote for Morris but would not vote for Oswalt. It's not completely fair because Oswalt hasn't hit the true downside of his career, which can spoil some of his numbers. But I think it's a very difficult argument to make. (I wouldn't vote for either right now.)

    One thing to watch on Oswalt: he's only 33. Last year was his first not making 30 starts since 2003. If he hangs around long enough to win another 70 games and that ERA doesn't tick up too much ... still not a slam dunk, but the case gets better. If he latches on with a team that wins a ring or two, his career could look a lot like Schilling's.
     
  12. Versatile

    Versatile Active Member

    I can't believe I have to say this again (seeing as I don't like the guy at all), but Curt Schilling was really, really good. Oswalt would have to have a complete career rebirth to reach Schilling's level. Schilling's three best seasons -- by traditional and sabermetric measures -- came after he turned 34. Now, whether you believe that was au naturel is another story. Oswalt has had a better career through age 33 than Schilling did. There's no question about that. But Schilling was just kicking into high gear. Oswalt has clearly fallen off.

    You can read the arguments for Morris all over the place. He got more than 60 percent of the vote. I disagree with those voters, but their arguments have nothing to do with anything Oswalt has accomplished in his career.

    If Oswalt can return to close-to-elite ranks, he has a good shot at a career resume similar to Jim Bunning's. But Bunning's traditional numbers were better because he pitched in an era dominated by pitching. Bunning also needed the Veteran's Committee's approval to enter the Hall of Fame.
     
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