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RIP Braves

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by TheSportsPredictor, May 6, 2006.

  1. dreunc1542

    dreunc1542 Active Member

    And the Pirates and Nats
  2. Oz

    Oz Well-Known Member

  3. DyePack

    DyePack New Member

    You suck, Sports Predictor.
  4. broadway joe

    broadway joe Guest

    Sports Predictor must have been talking to the people on the NBA thread who said there was no way the Suns would come back from 3-1 to beat the Lakers.
  5. TheSportsPredictor

    TheSportsPredictor Well-Known Member

    Since 1996, 36 teams have been 9 games or more out of first place on May 6.

    Exactly ONE of those teams has ended up in first place at the end of the season. That was the Yanks last year.

    Only five of those teams have even rebounded to a winning record. Since 1996, teams that are 9 or more games out of first on May 6 end up with an average of 66 victories.

    You can bet on the Braves to come back if you want. I am pronouncing them DOA.
  6. KYSportsWriter

    KYSportsWriter Well-Known Member

    TSP, it's fucking May. The season isn't decided in the second month. The Braves are not finished...yet.
  7. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    Statistics are so manipulative. I manipulated mine. Now I'm about to manipulate yours:

    Your nine games out on May 6 doesn't include my 2001 Braves example, where they were 8 games out on June 1. But because they were only 4 games back on May 6, they were actually too good to be included in your statistic, even though they got worse the following three weeks, falling 8 games back on June 1, before they began the comeback. And even though they were 8 games back, it wasn't 9 -- so it wouldn't have been included in your statistic then, either.

    Conclusion: Baseball's a funny game. Let's wait and see what happens. It's only May 6, after all.
  8. 2muchcoffeeman

    2muchcoffeeman Well-Known Member

    Remember, he's used to the Browns' season being over in September.
  9. KYSportsWriter

    KYSportsWriter Well-Known Member

    That's the Browns and this is baseball. When was the last time Cleveland won a divison title?
  10. TheSportsPredictor

    TheSportsPredictor Well-Known Member

    Isolating the exception does not prove the example is invalid.

    Since 2001, 51 teams have been 8 or more games out on June 1. The Braves are one of TWO of those teams to wind up in first, along with the 2002 A's.

    12 of those 51 teams have rebounded to at least .500 records. The average number of victories at the end of the season for these teams? 70.

    Go ahead and bet the Braves to come back and win the division. I'll give you a 4% chance of winning that bet, so you better get 25/1 odds.

    I expect the Braves to win between 66 and 70 games this year.
  11. 2muchcoffeeman

    2muchcoffeeman Well-Known Member

    2001. But lost the division series to the Mariners.

    Oh ... the Brownies? 1987 (strike year). Ran into Elway and choked.
  12. KYSportsWriter

    KYSportsWriter Well-Known Member

    Yes, the Browns. I know 2001 is the last time the Indians won it.... ::)
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