Republican poised for upset in NY-9 (Weiner's Old Seat)

Then why spend a half-million dollars on scare TV ads in the last week and bring a thousand union thugs foot soldiers into the district to go door to door?

Either it wasn't important and all that didn't happen ... except that it did, so someone of the Democrat side thought it must be important. Or they have waaaaay more money than sense, which is possible. And which would make me very, very happy.

 

You spend the half-mil to avoid having to deal with the stories we're reading today.
I understand that the Obama Administration doesn't want to be governed by the 24/7 news cycle but they need to acknowledge and accept that it does exist. Like a war - just walking away or wishing it wasn't there won't make it go away.
Merely trotting out an "event of the day" doesn't work the way it did during the Reagan years, which is why you sometimes only see B-roll of a daily event or catch the tail end on the nightly news so a reporter can shout a question like "are you worried about such and such."

 

This.

 

More than that, the fact that the Democrats lost a predominantly Jewish district is not good. The Jewish vote, while small and (outside of Florida) politically insignificant, has been strongly Democratic going back to the Great Depression. Even in the 1980 Reagan Revolution election, Jimmy Carter won the jewish vote. Obama got 78% of the Jewish vote in 2008.

But many jews, particularly more observant ones, have not been happy with Obama's perceived coolness toward Israel. They feel he's sympathetic to the Palestinians and Israel's hostile Arab neighbors. Whether that perception is true in reality or not is irrelevant - they believe it to be true, and Obama hasn't done enough to refute it.

I call B.S. on this. We heard last year that there was an anti-incumbent sentiment. Yet when it came time to actually cast the votes, only one party's incumbents got voted out. And even then, more than 80% of the seats in the House and 30 of the 36 Senate seats up for grabs remained in the incumbent party's hands.

Voters keep saying that Washington is broken. Then they keep re-electing the same bums. When waves like last year occur, they only benefit one of the two parties.

 

If you looked at the Dem seats that were lost - they were among the most "even" districts in Congress. And yes it was an anti-incumbent mood judging by the half-dozen incumbent GOPers who lost in primaries.

 

And here's the Times article Drudge was hyping:

 

How many states would the Jewish vote sway the election? Florida is the only one I can think of. New York is too blue to begin with.

 

Florida would be the big one.

You're probably right that New York is too blue for the Jewish vote to turn the state.

This is from a quick Google search:

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/usjewpop.html

Jersey, Massachusetts, and Maryland have good size populations.

But aside from Florida, if the Dems have to even spend one cent or a minutes time defending these states, they're done.

And, even with '10's big Republican win in the House, the Republicans could still gain seats the way it's setting up. They could also win the Senate and flip state houses.

 

The alternative is having Obama finish off the country.

But that's not going to happen and it's quite astonishing considering how some of you, and especially on the sportdesk board, were proclaiming Obama the man who was ushering in a permanent wave of liberalism four years ago.

 

Should Perry get the nom, his drooling about SS has already doomed him, there. BO wouldn't have to lift a finger to win the state.

 

"drooling?" Never fails.

 

The question isn't just whether a state has a good-sized Jewish population. It's the religiosity and dedicated to Israel over everything as an issue. In NY-9, the Hasidic Jews are the equivalent to evangelical Christians. Weprin, by the way, also voted for gay marriage, which the extremely socially conservative Jews in that district would have a problem with.

A lot of states that go blue for candidates that don't wear a Jesus lapel pin have plenty of Christians. For that matter, the district where I live has plenty of socially conservative Catholics who still end up voting Democratic for other reasons.