Republican poised for upset in NY-9 (Weiner's Old Seat)

The election is tomorrow, and the Republican is predicted to win:

This district, in Queens & Brooklyn is 3-1 Democrats to Republicans.

Turner is tying Weprin to Obama and it's working -- in a district that's 3-1 Democrats.

Weprin is an Orthodox Jew, and he's losing to Turner, a Catholic, among Jewish voters.

If Turner wins, this is stunning.

If Brooklyn & Queens are battlegrounds, the President is fucked.

 

Shhhhhhhh....he can't lose. Obama is going to win big, big, big! The Repubs might as well not run anyone.

 

By all accounts Weprin has run a turrible campaign.

 

Probably true, but in that district, it shouldn't have mattered.

I did just read that he doesn't live in the district. That's dumb. I think the Republicans did the same thing in the upstate special election a while back.

It also looks like they should have known he wasn't the best candidate:

 

I am more of a presidential-year observer for most races out of my own area, but I have to wonder, do the special circumstances here mitigate any"trend" reading that might be taken? I just can't imagine that a ton of people in that area all of the sudden switched from D to R. And also, wasn't the Craigslist congressman from a heavy GOP district in New York state that after he resigned went to a Dem for the first time in forever?

This sounds more like '04 when Obama had a cakewalk to his Senate seat after Jack Ryan got caught in the sex club scandal and the GOP had no other worthy candidate (DITKA!!!!!!!).

 

That district is probably going to be erased by the time the '12 election arrives, anyway (and Lee's old district in western NY might be, too). Hope whoever wins today's race enjoys his less-than-16-month tenure in the House.

 

Isn't Weiner supporting the republican?

 

I have to say, Republican or Democrat, knowing you'll be redistricted out of the House in the next election is a surefire incentive for any pol to steal with both hands once he/she gets there.

 

Is it a given that they'll be redistricted or is it just a well-substantiated rumor?

 

It's pretty much a given. It's even more likely if a Republican wins, since Dems control the process.

Part of the reason why the Dems have a shitty candidate is because he agreed not to run for another seat (against a Dem in a primary) if his went away.

 

Can it be an upset if you lead in the polls?

 

The deal is one downstate seat goes and one upstate seat goes. The leftover parts of this district will be melded into a safe Long Island Republican seat and safe Queens Democratic seat. The Republican whose district got flooded out in Irene but who said she agreed that there shouldn't be disaster aid without budget cuts is the prime candidate to be geographically vaporized upstate. Wonder why?