Reasonable expectations in college football

If I had ranked them in order, Wisconsin would have been the top team in Tier 2. The fact of the matter is, Wisconsin has never played for a title. The Badgers have been in the top five a couple times, and also were completely off the map until Alvarez got there. They've really only been consistently good for 15-16 years, which isn't that long if you compare it to the Alabamas and the Penn States and the Oklahomas of the world.

Anyway, that was my thinking.

 

YOUR RANKINGS ARE BAD AND YOU SHOULD FEEL BAD.

 

Classic!

Anyway, Mizzou, I'd say you're right on about Wisconsin. They'd love to play for a national title, but that's not expectations. They want to be competitive for the Big Ten title every year, but they understand that OSU is still going to beat them for it more often than not.

 

Exactly. If you go 9-3 at Wisconsin and play in the Outback Bowl, it's considered a good season. I don't think that's the case at Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.

 

It would sure have been considered a good season at Michigan the last few years.

 

I know I've said something along these lines, but I think you just made my case for Oregon, Va. Tech and Boise.

 

Yeah, that was why I didn't have them among the initial 15 Tier 1 teams. This will be Oregon's first time playing for a title, even though the Ducks should have played for the title in 2002.

Virginia Tech's record was better than I thought it was and has been crazy consistent over the the last 15 years or so. I know Tech has only played for the title once. I don't know if they're ever been a realistic title contender since then.

Seeing that Boise had the best record in college football for the last 10 years was kind of an eye-opener. I think some thought it was all within the last 5-6 years.

 

As one of the few that would care, yeah that would be awesome, but I kind of like that there are still a couple of good non-conference games with Syracuse and Hopkins. Now, why don't more ACC schools have men's lacrosse? (I actually know the answer, I'm just lamenting) If Va. Tech and BC added programs you'd have a nice six-team league.

 

that sounds a lot more reasonable than they should win 9-10 every year and own the conference. there is a ton of talent in western PA but Penn St has always been Penn St and they're a level above Pitt. some years Pitt is better but as a program Penn St is like a pro team in that they have so much support. in Pitt, the Steelers are always kings. i think in recruiting some of that matters. like Rutgers is in the shadow of the Giants and Jets. Rutgers also has probably more to draw from than Pitt because they're the only D1 in NJ. PA also has Temple, I know they're nowhere near Penn St or Pitt but that's three D1 schools. PA doesn't have 3X as many top recruits as NJ.

 

As a Virginia Tech fan, here are my realistic expectations, given the makeup of the ACC right now:

1. Compete for the Coastal Division title every year. Really, only Georgia Tech and Miami are realistic threats, and Tech each year gets one of those teams at home and one on the road.

2. 9-10 wins, considering how the soft the schedules tend to be.

3. Beat Virginia. The Cavaliers aren't even on the same planet as the Hokies right now in football. That might change as London gains a recruiting foothold, but for now, this shouldn't even be a question mark.

4. Chick-Fil-A Bowl or BCS bowl. At worst, the Champs Sports.

5. An outside shot at a national title every five years or so.

A lot of Tech fans don't understand how good the program has been for the last 17 years. Consistent trips to BCS games are not a bad thing.

 

Tech was a legit national title contender before the season started. Not so much five days after the season started.

 

Here's how expectations get out of whack.

This is this season's preseason Top 25

1 Alabama (54) 0-0 1491
2 Ohio State (3) 0-0 1400
3 Boise State (1) 0-0 1336
4 Florida 0-0 1237
5 Texas (1) 0-0 1223
6 TCU 0-0 1160
7 Oklahoma (1) 0-0 1104
8 Nebraska 0-0 1033
9 Iowa 0-0 1007
10 Virginia Tech 0-0 973
11 Oregon 0-0 870
12 Wisconsin 0-0 822
13 Miami (FL) 0-0 785
14 USC 0-0 590
15 Pittsburgh 0-0 516
16 Georgia Tech 0-0 511
17 Arkansas 0-0 496
18 North Carolina 0-0 397
19 Penn State 0-0 382
20 Florida State 0-0 379
21 LSU 0-0 300
22 Auburn 0-0 296
23 Georgia 0-0 206
24 Oregon State 0-0 198
25 West Virginia 0-0 184

I know it's an inexact science, but when the preseason No. 4 team loses five games and the preseason No. 5 team has a losing season it tells you how the fans of those schools were thinking those schools were legitimate national title contenders only to have both teams shit the bed in a major way.

Never mind that Auburn is No. 22, Oregon is No. 12 and Stanford is unranked.