Reasonable expectations in college football

Virginia Tech has been so consistent that it's almost taken for granted. Also, it doesn't help them that the conference has been down for the last few years.

 

It's about expectations, not reality.

 

I'm glad Beamer has stayed at Tech. It's nice to see a guy tell Bama and others to fuck off and stay where he is.

 

The Big 12 will get more interesting next year with it dropping a non-conference game (likely one of the three sisters of the poor) in exchange for another conference game. You look at how many teams had losing records in conference going to bowls and there is going to be a smaller margin for error.
The loss of the non-con will probably impact bowl eligibility, which is why the Big 10 is probably sticking with four-nons and eight conference games.

 

Oregon, Boise State and TCU need to be moved to the top tier.
Also, Oregon State in the second tier.

 

Oregon is not expected to contend for national titles on a regular basis.

Nobody expects Oregon State to contend on a regular basis.

TCU and Boise State have had good success lately, but nobody is going to mistake either for a national power. If you haven't won a national title in the last 25 years are you really a national power? Auburn and Virginia Tech may be the only exceptions.

 

UCLA is the co-flagship university of the most populous state in the country. It has more great football players within 40 miles of its campus than virtually every other team in the country.

It has tough admission standards for everyday students, but can and will bend for athletes, and has a beautiful campus.

UCLA's problem isn't high expectations. It should compete for a national title at least once every five years or so. UCLA's problem is terrible hires like Karl Dorrell and Rick Neuheisel.

If it ever hires someone like Terry Donahue again, look out.

 

I know they've been down for a while, but how about Washington? There's a good deal of tradition there.

 

Washington is one of those schools that really doesn't have an excuse to suck. Facilities, location, academics, probably the best in the Pac 10 when you combine all three. I do find it interesting that next year the conference will have three teams that Rick Neuheisel ruined.

 

OK, since I'm extremely bored and there's nothing interesting on TV:

Top winning percentages since 1990 (not including the current season)

1 Florida 0.79412 202 52 1 255
2 Ohio State 0.77800 193 54 3 250
3 Boise State 0.76136 134 42 0 176
4 Nebraska 0.76087 192 60 1 253
5 Florida State 0.76042 182 57 1 240
6 Miami-Florida 0.75410 184 60 0 244
7 Texas 0.74297 184 63 2 249
8 Tennessee 0.73200 182 66 2 250
9 Michigan 0.71341 174 69 3 246
10 Virginia Tech 0.71169 176 71 1 248
11 Penn State 0.70732 174 72 0 246
12 Georgia 0.69592 170 74 1 245
13 Oklahoma 0.69277 171 75 3 249
14 Southern Cal 0.69076 170 75 4 249
15 Auburn 0.66736 160 79 3 242
16 Brigham Young 0.66667 167 83 2 252
17 Utah 0.65690 157 82 0 239
18 Kansas State 0.65226 158 84 1 243
19 Oregon 0.64609 157 86 0 243
20 Texas A&M 0.64228 157 87 2 246

Top winning percentages from 1990-1999

1 Marshall 0.89744 35 4 0 39
2 Florida State 0.89024 109 13 1 123
3 Nebraska 0.86800 108 16 1 125
4 Florida 0.82000 102 22 1 125
5 Tennessee 0.81301 99 22 2 123
6 Penn State 0.78862 97 26 0 123
7 Michigan 0.77459 93 26 3 122
8 Miami-Florida 0.77311 92 27 0 119
9 Texas A&M 0.76613 94 28 2 124
10 Ohio State 0.75203 91 29 3 123
11 Colorado 0.74167 87 29 4 120
12 Kansas State 0.74153 87 30 1 118
13 Notre Dame 0.70248 84 35 2 121
14 Washington 0.69915 82 35 1 118
15 Syracuse 0.69583 82 35 3 120
16 Brigham Young 0.68504 86 39 2 127
17 Alabama 0.67480 83 40 0 123
18 North Carolina 0.66525 78 39 1 118
19 Virginia Tech 0.66239 77 39 1 117
20 Virginia 0.65966 78 40 1 119

Top winning percentages since 2000 (not including this season)

1 Boise State 0.86822 112 17 0 129
2 Texas 0.85271 110 19 0 129
3 Oklahoma 0.82090 110 24 0 134
4 Ohio State 0.80315 102 25 0 127
5 Southern Cal 0.79688 102 26 0 128
6 Florida 0.76923 100 30 0 130
7 Texas Christian 0.76613 95 29 0 124
8 Louisiana State 0.76154 99 31 0 130
9 Georgia 0.75969 98 31 0 129
10 Virginia Tech 0.75573 99 32 0 131
11 Miami-Florida 0.73600 92 33 0 125
12 Utah 0.70492 86 36 0 122
13 Oregon 0.69600 87 38 0 125
14 Auburn 0.69291 88 39 0 127
15 West Virginia 0.68800 86 39 0 125
16 Boston College 0.68750 88 40 0 128
17 Louisville 0.66935 83 41 0 124
18 Wisconsin 0.66667 86 43 0 129
19 Texas Tech 0.66406 85 43 0 128
20 Nebraska 0.65625 84 44 0 128

It's important to note that Marshall and Boise State spent a good part of the 90s as a member of I-AA.

I got all of these stats from:

http://football.stassen.com/records/compute-request.html

 

Mizzou, the conditions were to occasionally contend for a BCS Bowl and sometimes win 8-9 games.
Oregon State has been to the Fiesta Bowl, contended for the Rose Bowl in 2008 and 09 and has had 8-10 win seasons several times in the past decade.
I would say they fit.
Oregon might be a little stretch but with this national championship berth I think they're there.
Win-wise Boise State is there easily.