Prediction time -- The Turning Point

Maybe it's been done before, but let's anyway...

I read one of the interviews on SMG where the interviewee quoted a colleague who predicts that a major newspaper in the U.S. will fold in the next five years and will exist only online.

I think that's gutsy and ominous.

So which paper will fold and exist exclusively online? And will this be the turning point for the newspaper business?

 

In a recent radio interview I read about online, Bill O'Reilly said he thought the Los Angeles Times would be gone in print form not that far down the road. I find that far-fetched, but in the current climate, who knows?

(I personally don't believe that will happen in my lifetime, which hopefully is still a while yet.)

 

I have nothing to base this on, as I live many miles away and have no inside contacts, but wouldn't the Seattle P-I be the most obvious candidate to do this if it loses its court battle with the Times and the JOA is dissolved?

 

I can imagine a radically different kind of USA Today -- a free distribution tab targeted primarily to hotels and airports with a verrrry robust online component.

 

The Boston Herald seems like a reasonable candidate.
For what it's worth, I think online-only's fine if they can figure out a way to earn enough revenue to retain the staff it takes to do good journalism. Look at Slate, or ESPN.com.

 

I'd look to Detroit. The two metros are bleeding circulation like a sword swallower's rectum, and JRC is fucking up many of the suburban papers.

It's a fight between Timmy and Jimmy in the parking lot.

 

Nice imagery.

 

Thanks, Dye. I'm having a hard time shaking that one.