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Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by trifectarich, May 17, 2007.

  1. trifectarich

    trifectarich Well-Known Member

    1 Mint Slewlep Garcia 30-1
    2 Xchanger Dominguez 15-1
    3 Circular Quay John Velasquez 8-1
    4 Curlin Albarado 7-2
    5 King of the Roxy Gomez 12-1
    6 Flying First Class Guidry 20-1
    7 Hard Spun Pino 5-2
    8 Street Sense Borel 7-5
    9 C P West Prado 20-1

    This doesn't look like a great opportunity for big payoffs. For that to happen, I think two of the three big favorites (4, 7, 8) would have to run out of the money and that just doesn't appear to be likely. I give the 1, 6 and 9 no chance to win whatsoever and won't be surprised if the top three finishers from the Derby are also in the top three at Pimlico.

    The value play looks to be King of the Roxy at 12-to-1.

    Good luck to everyone.
  2. Blitz

    Blitz Active Member

    I'm picking Circular Quay to finish first and Street Sense to take second.
    1-2 exacta
  3. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    This looks like an incredibly uninteresting field. A 4-7-8 trifecta, highly likely, would be lucky to return $50.
  4. silvercharm

    silvercharm Member

    Circular Quay and Curlin would be my top picks to win Saturday. The Derby was their Preakness "prep," if you will. Both needed a good hard race. They've got it, they're set, and I believe both will finish in the top 3. Other than Street Sense and Hard Spun, no one else has a shot at the top 2 slots. For third, maybe Xchanger and King of the Roxy.

    I'd play a trifecta looking something like 3-4 w/3-4-7-8 w/2-3-4-5-7-8, then a 3-4-7-8 w/3-4 w/2-3-4-5-7-8. Then I'd come back and pound trifectas with the four favorites, needing Curlin and/or CQ to run among the top 2. 3-4 w/3-4-7-8 w/ 3-4-7-8 and 3-4-7-8 w/ 3-4 w/ 3-4-7-8.

    I'm all for betting longshots, but sometimes, it's not worth the fight.
  5. WSKY

    WSKY Member

    Horse racing = who cares unless it's the derby.
  6. trifectarich

    trifectarich Well-Known Member

    If you're trying to find a winner and you're not crazy about Street Sense at short odds, I'll give you Andrew Beyer's great stat of the day: Since 1990, eight horses have won the Derby with a rally from 12th place or farther back. Seven of those horses ran the Preakness, and all of them lost.
  7. Dignan

    Dignan Guest

  8. There's just something about Flying First Class that I really like. Everything I've read about this horse has given me reason to think he has a shot. He's rested from not running the banging around version of the derby and Lukas said he's a better fit for the Preakness.

    So I'm putting money on him to win and in an exacta box with Street Sense.
  9. lollygagger

    lollygagger Member

    I'd like to give Lukas the benefit of the doubt, but I think Flying First Class is in over his head in this field. The Derby Trial isn't much of a race any more, and this horse has only won at less than a mile.

    If there's any money to be made here, it's probably on Circular Quay, but I don't think there is. I like Hard Spun over Curlin.
  10. Key

    Key Well-Known Member

    Doesn't look like there's much love for horse racing on this board, but that was one helluva race.
  11. imjustagirl2

    imjustagirl2 New Member

    I heart Robby Albarado.
  12. KP

    KP Active Member

    Very good race and kudos to playthrough for hitting the trifecta payout on the nose (even if he/she had Hard Spun and Street Sense backwards).
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