Preakness Stakes

That's not the case, though. Even if you want to play conservative and give the race to Big Brown, there will be a second- and third-place horses and I'll be spending a few hours tonight trying to figure out who they'll be.

 

Big Brown was steaming away from the field at the end of the Derby, and the Belmont is only 440 yards longer. I don't think a mile and a half will be any problem at all.

What he's got to watch is getting caught in a traffic jam early.

 

Belmont's a rider's race.

And it will be interesting to watch Kent's mode of action should he win Saturday,
since his narrow Belmont loss on Real Quiet pissed Baffert off to no end (not wholly justifiably, in my view), ruined him near-term in California, and virtually dictated his eventual permanent move East.

The mile and a half makes a difference. It exposes the pretenders.

But -- again -- the sheer size of the field, if it's as big as I think it will be, increases the variables, dangerously (for the favorite).

 

Traffic is the last thing a jockey worries about in the Belmont. There's all the room in the world for what generally is never a huge field and everyone usually lopes along for a minute and 45 seconds before things get serious.

 

No argument whatsoever with your first sentence . . . but the number of players can make a significant difference in the number of possible pace scenarios.

 

Behindatthebar OUT . . . bruised left fore.

 

OK, so there's a damn good chance every horse except the favorite will be double-digit odds. This certainly makes the money-making prospects more interesting.

 

When the program ML's 1-2, you know BB's going 1-5 or 3-10.

 

You are correct. But that means the likelihood that two of the three spots in the trifecta will be horses that are 20-to-1 or higher. I don't know what the chances are for rain, but personally, I wouldn't mind seeing an off track; that would only add a little more intrigue.

 

More than you'll win back.

(Sorry, couldn't resist. I don't know the math, but I'm guessing there's one or two others 'round these parts who will have the answer for you shortly).

 

$220, by my watch (with a dozen in the field, now, 11 X 10).

Correct me, if I'm wrong.