Posnanski: Why do so many assume Tiger Woods will return to form one day?

Woods has had fallow periods before, even when he was young. After the 1997 Masters, he didn't just not win majors until the 1999 PGA, he was not a factor in most of 'em With my own eyes, I saw him four-putt a green at the '98 Open at Olympic. He was, then as now, grafting a new swing onto his consciousness. He was, then as now, prone to rank holes at bad moments. Then he won five of the next six majors starting with that PGA.
Of course, it's a lot easier to recreate oneself in any sport the younger you are. But there are as many reasons to believe Woods CAN come back (to world number one, if not the total dominance of the early 2000s) as to think he can't. It's a 50-50 proposition.

 

50-50, huh? Sorry, not buying those odds.

I'm not even sure you read the Posnanski column, btw.

 

The other day, when SI came, my wife said something about the cover "jinx." Then we started talking about why the "jinx" really happens - because athletes and teams typically get on the cover as they peak. And it's damn hard to sustain that in competitive sports at the highest level. Too many people are good. Too many people are gunning for you.

Let's say that he wins only two more majors. Or one. Or none.

I hope - I dearly, dearly hope - that the narrative isn't, "Tiger Woods. What Might Have Been: An American Tragedy."

No matter what happens from here on out, he has had an ascendant career. He changed his sport. Changed America in some ways. He is on the Mt. Rushmore in his sport, and in the conversation for Mt. Rushmore for all of sports, along with Ali, Jordan, Ruth, etc., etc.

 

Twice.

 

But now he's a loser.

 

A lot of it was just hype, like you said. But a lot of it was also backed up by numbers. For a while he was ahead of Jack's pace both in terms of age and in majors played. Tiger won his 12th major at age 30. Jack won his 12th at age 33. It was numbers like those that made many people (myself included) believe he would do it.

 

Someone pass the butter.

 

While Jack didn't exactly have a natural swing, he used his lower body to great effect. (Which probably led to his recent hip problems.) Tiger probably--I haven't seen a comparison--generates more swing speed than Jack did, and he certainly uses different muscle groups. For example, his left heel has never lifted as much as Jack's did. (This is my observation.) Maybe his swing makes him more prone to injury. In any case, he's more beat up physically at this age than Jack was. (And no, I didn't do that intentionally.)

That's why I don't see this as just another mid-career slump, which both Jack and Tiger had at earlier points in their respective careers.

 

One problem: Mickelson turned pro a couple weeks after turning 22 in 1992 and had won eight times on the PGA Tour before turning 26. Tiger had one bad year. I'd give him until the end of this year before I start writing him off. If he wins the Masters a lot of people will be back on the bandwagon.

 

Suppose Woods only wins 1-3 more majors and finishes behind Nicklaus with a miserable 15-17 of them. Does that mean he never recovered from his maritally induced layoff, or does it mean 18 is one hell of a lot of majors to win?

 

I don't really care one or way or another if he breaks Jack's record. But, I think he will.

As was mentioned earlier, the physical fitness of golfers today compared to 30 years ago makes age comparisons pretty difficult. Woods at 35 does not equal Ray Floyd at 35. Today's golfers will have much more legitimate shots to win majors later in their careers than ever before. Jack's Masters at 46 will look like a relative youngster 15 or 20 years from now.

And people tend to completely forget he finished 4th in both the Masters and US Open last year. Sure, he didn't win, but he was damn well in the hunt, and a few shots go a few different ways, and he could be at 15 or 16 right now.

The biggest challenge is the level of competition these days. With all the good young golfers emerging, winning a major is becoming like winning a World Series of Poker--you have to wade through so many quality competitors and have things fall right for you.

But, in the end, I think he'll get to 19. If only because of how he got to 14.

 

Both?