Poll: What will be the next big newspaper to fold?

Just when I was reading some of the stuff about the Rocky folding, and people were mentioning other cities that might be the first not to have a paper, Cincy seems to get mentioned a lot. I don't know anything beyond that. I've never gotten the sense that it's in the same financial shape as The Denver Post, the AJC, the Seattle Times or the Detroit papers.

 

Absolutely, it's what we're wondering about. Still, a bit morbid. The poll is a bit like a bunch of castaways sitting around the fire having a conversation about who's most likely to die first. Except that castaways don't have furloughs. ("Under no circumstances should you gather food or wood for the fire while on furlough.")

Was calling for help on a story this week and got a inadvertently got a writer on furlough. Guy was great about it, but it made it hit a little closer to home.

My under-50 death-pool pick is always Andy Dick. Because of this, he'll outlive me, if not my children.

 

The reason I started this thread is because I can't have a conversation with anyone in the business without it coming up. OK, the Rocky is gone, who's next?

It's a valid question, even if we don't want to know the answer.

 

Mediaguy specifically talked about the poll, not the existence of the thread. As I said earlier, I'm not sure I know why one feels appropriate and the other not so much, but it's a curiosity for me -- and clearly for others. But yes, it's something we're all talking about.

I'm not busting your chops about it. When I mentioned it earlier, it was more from a standpoint of being a student of human nature, particularly my own. I was wondering aloud why a thread on the subject seems fine, perhaps even necessary, but the poll put a bit of a bad taste in my mouth, and I still can't say for sure why.

Do we all wish there were something more uplifting to discuss? Absolutely.

 

How utterly silly, people taking umbrage at this thread. This is classic water-cooler talk, and no one is suggesting that it's all based on inside knowledge or unimpeachable sources or even new info. Some paper is going to be next but, what, we're all just supposed to respectfully shut up about it until a suit somewhere swings the ax?

If people working at the papers on this endangered list didn't know it until they read it here, and their feelings are just now getting hurt, they don't belong anywhere near a newsroom. We all got it comin', sooner or later.

 

Well said.

 

Joe is right, of course. And I agree, well said. In Tampa when a colleague asks "how are you doing," we invariably say, "the (security) badge worked," meaning we are still employed. Gallows humor, of course. Keeps us all going.

 

Having been around when the Dallas Times Herald folded circa 1990, leaving just the DMN---although I guess you could say the Fort Worth ST gets lumped in there, too----to be a major Dallas daily, I"m surprised more two-paper towns haven't lost one of their papers until now.

 

Best guess is that it will be a paper that nobody expects.
The conventional wisdom was that the Denver Post would fold before Scripps pulled the plug on the Rocky.
Scripps has all the money in the world because of its broadcast operations.
It may not fit the criteria, but I still can see a Gannett consolidating its operations and creating a regional USA Today with local zoned fronts/sections. In the process several papers would cease to exist.
You have several states where it could work — Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi, New York, Ohio and the list goes on.

 

I think San Francisco will be the first city to be without a daily newspaper, and I would not be surprised if it happens this year. I think that is the most wired area of the country, and people depend more on the internet than any other area. It is also a higher-cost area, so expenses are high in a declining market.

 

Absolutely. On a journalism board, should we avoid unpleasant topics like this? Especially since the J-schools avoid them?

This is the state of the business right now, and I don't get how anyone could question such a thread in the wake of the Rocky Mountain News closing. I guess it's easy for me to say; I'm happy and have a wife who loves me. So people who start dire topics don't bother me.

Or some such.

(insert some kind of smiley here)

In any event, Seattle PI is too easy. I think one of the Singleton papers in NoCal or SoCal will be the next to fold, though moving the staffs to a universal copydesk pretty much eliminates editorial independence and makes those papers satellites of their local flagship anyway.

For overall impact, I think the San Francisco Chronicle falling would be the domino that shakes the entire landscape. The RMN was huge, but the Denver Post still exists; some non-journalists outside the area likely would take a minute to realize both papers are in the same place.

But the Chronicle has enjoyed a dominant monopoly in its area for years. Their sports editor can keep files on people at quality papers who he would like to recruit to work there. If that city ends up without a true newspaper (does the Examiner even truly compete?), that will be monumental.

 

Sorry, but I have a hard time seeing any monopoly paper folding in the immediate future.
The P-I? Sure. The Philly Daily News? Perhaps. Maybe maybe a paper that shares a big market like Tampa, Fort Worth or Miami might go under. And we may see a wave of even further consolidation of suburban dailies, or suburban dailies folding into nearby metros.
But the Denver Post or SF Chronicle or Seattle Times or any other metro in a monopoly situation can still cut their way to profitability for a long time to come, or they can file Ch. 11, get out from under heavy debt, and keep operating. It won't be pretty, but it won't be what happened at the Rocky, either. Hell, plenty of them are still turning profits today, especially if you take away debt loads.
Now, someone (three papers I mentioned above are likely candidates to be the first), might make the leap to online-only, or stop home delivery ala Detroit. But there'll still be a newsroom there.