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Philly Fed prez: Recovery to start in second half of '09

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by 2muchcoffeeman, Jan 14, 2009.

  1. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    The economy was showing modest increases in output for years during the great depression, too. If you keep that in mind, what they are projecting is actually plausible. The economy is in the crapper. Unemployment can hover above double digits next year and we will still be seeing growth in the economy. When you start in a ditch, anything is closer to ground level. It was an easy prediction to make, when you word things they way they did in that PDF.
     
  2. PeteyPirate

    PeteyPirate Guest

    Commercial real estate has yet to bust. I've just been reassigned from a role lending to operating companies to managing a commercial real estate portfolio, meaning trying to preserve as much of it as possible.
     
  3. poindexter

    poindexter Well-Known Member


    So much for that "bottom" in March.

    U.S. Food-Stamp Recipients Reached Record 33.8 Million in April
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDhdHJrK42P0


    The number of hours worked by people who have jobs fell to the lowest level in 45 years of record keeping – 33 hours per week on average – the Labor Department reported Thursday (July 2).

    The unemployment rate continued to climb to 9.5 percent in June. The net loss of 467,000 jobs was worse than expected, causing stock investors to send share prices down about 2 percent in morning trading.

    Despite the sobering employment picture, other indicators still lead forecasters to expect economic growth to resume later this year. Moreover, the pace of job losses appears to be slowing, though it will likely take a while to restore a truly positive job climate.

    “The private sector’s total paid hours … is now fewer than the total hours worked in June 1998,” says Charles McMillion of MBG Information Services, in a report analyzing the labor figures.

    That’s an extraordinary downshift, he says. Until this recession, the total hours worked across the entire the economy have never been in a decline of that length. In fact, they have always increased by 10 percent or more in every 11-year period since records began in 1964.
    http://features.csmonitor.com/economyrebuild/2009/07/02/americans-are-working-fewest-hours-on-record/
     
  4. andyouare?

    andyouare? Guest

    You forgot to copy-and-paste the rest of that article:

     
  5. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    As others have mentioned, "growth" in the economy doesn't mean "getting back to where we were."
     
  6. Stoney

    Stoney Well-Known Member

    The last couple years should've taught all of us that economic statements using wording such as "generally expect", "later in the year" and "are planning to" mean nothing. They get issued all the damn time and have turned out to be wrong more than right recently. Don't believe it until it actually happens.

    And that little bright side part at the end hardly negates Poin's point: predictions of having reached a bottom in March were way off the mark.
     
  7. Boom_70

    Boom_70 Well-Known Member

    That Chicago Mall company is majority owned by Tom Friedman's wife's family.

    I wonder if Tom views this as positive news given that mallls are so bad for the enviorment.
     
  8. As always, great point.
     
  9. poindexter

    poindexter Well-Known Member

    Lets take a look and see how the ports are doing:
    http://mobile.latimes.com/inf/infomo?view=page2&feed:a=latimes_1min&feed:c=businessnews&feed:i=47927077&nopaging=1

    Trade at international ports is on track to drop more than 10% this year, one of the steepest declines ever, according to a new maritime industry report.

    Cargo ships will carry 27 million fewer containers by year's end than they did in 2008 -- a reduction roughly equivalent to all of the cargo containers handled by the five busiest U.S. seaports in a typical year, according to London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants' Container Forecaster Report.

    "There has never been a decline like this before. We have never seen numbers like these," said Neil Dekker, editor of the Drewry report. "The container industry is looking at a $20-billion black hole of losses. We can expect a lot of casualties."
     
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