Philly Fed prez: Recovery to start in second half of '09

Time to stir the Poindexter pot

 

New home starts up 20.2 percent in February

Where is that only economic genius on the board?

 

Have actually had two job offers in the past month . . . one decent . . . but I don't read that as if any "bottom" has been reached.

 

Yer kidding, right?

If you want to play this game, I am up for it.

"New home starts up 20.2 percent in February". But its *still* 47.3 percent below the revised February 2008 rate of 1,107,000.

Its a joke of a stat, but if you feel thats some sort of indicator, thats awesome. It must be all the job losses and excess house inventory spurring this demand for houses.

Here are some other news items from today to chew on if you think this is some kind of "rebound".

Chrysler needs another $5 billion in loans
http://online.wSportsJournalists.com/article/SB123721812476242685.html

US Credit Card defaults at a 20-year high
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE52F75620090316
In addition, Citigroup Inc (C.N) -- one of the largest issuers of MasterCard cards -- disappointed analysts as its default rate soared to 9.33 percent in February, from 6.95 percent a month earlier, according to a report based on trusts representing a portion of securitized credit card debt.

"There is a continued deterioration. Trends in credit cards will get worse before they start getting better," said Walter Todd, a portfolio manager at Greenwood Capital Associates.

 

You just can't say it, can you?

The bottom has probably been reached.

 

Big deal.

No shit, Sherlock. Really? Wow!


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I don't think we've reached halftime yet.

Take a look over at the journalism board, see if the folks there feel we are on the upswing.

 

Newspapers were stuck in a black hole's event horizon even before this happened.

 

Fine.

Financial services
Auto makers, auto sellers, auto distributors
Airlines
Hospitality services
Commercial real estate

How many industries you want me to name that are in the dumper today, with no near-term recovery prospects?

And feel free to name the growth industries today, besides sign-spinners and foreclosure sheriffs.

 

Good points. Imagine how worse off all those industries would be if we sat around and did nothing.

 

That's not exactly true, either. Geniuses like Sam Zell borrowed monstrously to finance his Tribune purchase, thinking that refinancing would be a breeze when debt payments came due, like it had been for decades. When things changed economically, and he realized he couldn't roll over the debt, he had to start cutting furiously.

I don't follow other newspaper companies, but I doubt Zell is the only one.

 

Poin vs. Cowbell. Here is one where the linesmen just stand back and let 'em punch themselves out.