Philly Fed prez: Recovery to start in second half of '09

Just ask a Realtor.

 

Good idea. They are unbiased.

 

There's never been a better time to buy a house . . . if you have a stable job (how many people on this site, and the nation, can meet that criteria?).

There most certainly has been a much better bleeping time to sell a house . . . like 2005.

 

Here is the NAR last year:
Stable Existing-Home Sales Expected in Early 2008, then Gradual Rise

WASHINGTON, January 08, 2008, January 10, 2008
Over the next few months, existing-home sales are expected to hold fairly steady as indicated by pending sales activity, then rise later in the year and continue to improve in 2009, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/01/pshi_jan08_stable_existing_home_sales


Existing-Home Sales Rise in November, Market Likely Stabilizing

WASHINGTON, January 07, 2008

Existing-home sales rose slightly in November, indicating a stabilization in housing in the wake of mortgage disruptions earlier this year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/01/ehs_dec07_ehs_rise_in_november

I love "experts".

 

Or how about NAR's Chief Economist writing this book (http://www.amazon.com/Are-Missing-Real-Estate-Boom/dp/0385514344) in 06 right as the pyramid scheme was starting to crack. Here's the cliff notes version: invest your entire net worth into housing immediately because there is no bubble, indeed the very idea of a bubble is laughable, and real estate prices are just gonna keep going up up up and anyone not buying and selling properties will be left behind to sleep in the ditch by the river.

That book offers some of the best unintentional comedy ever put on paper. And, to top it, I just noticed these reviews it got:

“An invaluable book . . . Today’s real estate markets are booming and Lereah makes a convincing case for why the real estate expansion will continue into the next decade. This book should prove to be a truly practical guide for any household looking to create wealth in real estate.” —DEWEY DAANE, FORMER GOVERNOR OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD OF GOVERNORS

“An important book, whether you agree with the author (as I do) that housing will remain an excellent investment or are convinced that home prices are poised for a plunge, David Lereah lays out a compelling vision of housing as a continuing positive investment—and how you can profit from real estate if you already own the home you live in, are looking to move from rental housing to an owner-occupied home, or want to use real estate as an investment.” —DAVID BERSON, CHIEF ECONOMIST, FANNIE MAE

Gee, I can't imagine how we're in such dire straights with these genius fucks at the helm of our economy.

 

That's right... sort of what being at a bottom can mean.

 

Mirror time.

 

"That house is on fire."
"Motivated seller."

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/31/business/economy/31econ.html?hp

 

GDP is a meaningless number - its been documented here so many times, it isn't funny.

I have zero faith that the numbers used to make the GDP are accurate. None. A lifetime of looking at government numbers has told me that. The fact that next month, this same GDP number will be revised upward is another reason to ignore this.

Read the article: "GDP" could not be any more bogus by definition.

“The difference between 3.8 and 5.1 percent is the inventory buildup,” Nigel Gault, chief United States economist at IHS Global Insight, said. “My only explanation is that companies could not cut production fast enough.”

Fan-fucking-tastic! GDP decline was lower because there are cars sitting in a lot that nobody will buy! Hooray!! The bottom is in!

 

“The difference between 3.8 and 5.1 percent is the inventory buildup,” Nigel Gault, chief United States economist at IHS Global Insight, said. “My only explanation is that companies could not cut production fast enough.”

Let's all build things that no one wants. And then lets stockpile them in our closets or around our waists as fat. Then count call the excess crap as growth.

 

More GDP fun:
Federal spending rose 5.8%.

So when the government spends money it doesn't even have, it contributes to the GDP. Awesome.