Perhaps inane number crunching vis-a-vis Larry Wayne Jones

I think we all know Chipper Jones isn't going to hit .400, though I doubt any of us would have predicted he'd be at .412 on May 23. At any rate, I was curious what it would take for him to do it, and this is what I came up with:

Chipper has played 44 of the Braves’ 47 games, or 93.6 percent. At that rate he’ll finish with 152 games (his stated goal in spring training was to play in 150).

He’s averaging 3.6 at-bats per game. Over 152 games, that translates to 553 at-bats, which would require 221 hits for a .400 average. Only three switch-hitters have had that many hits (Pete Rose had 23 in 1973, Willlie Willson 230 in 1980 and Frankie Frisch had 223 in 1923), and none of them was a power hitter. Jones has 92 more career homers than the three of them combined.

In his 13 full seasons (I did not include this year or his first year, when he only played in eight games) he has averaged 145 games, which at his current pace translates to 508 ABs. To hit .400 in that scenario he’d need 203 hits (his career high was 189 in 159 games).

The way his season is going, walks aren’t really helping him. His 170 Abs account for 86 percent of his 197 plate appearances. In the 13 seasons referenced above, he’s averaged 624 plate appearances per season, for which 508 at-bats would be 81 percent. In simple terms that means he needs to walk more (I know, not earth-shattering). He’s on a pace for 82 walks if he plays 152 games or 79 if he plays 145. Let's say he plays 145 games and gets 624 plate appearances. If he walks 79 times, that means he'd need 203 hits and a combination of 37 sacrifice flies and hit-batsmen to finish at .400. His career high HBP is 4 and his career high in SF is 10.

 

My head hurts.

 

Interesting way to look at it but we are waaaaay to early in the season to start considering this seriously.

 

Of course, every one of n_w's "on pace for" will change drastically if he has a couple of 0-for-4 or a 1-for-12 three-game series.

 

Alley, I agree, which is why I prefaced it the way I did. I went ahead and did it anyway because a.) not many hitters get even this deep in the season hitting .400 and b.) I guess I didn't have anything better to do.

 

Call me in August if he's still over .400.

 

He needs 502 plate appearances, right?

 

Should I start looking for the Josh Hamilton Triple Crown thread and the Brandon Webb 30 Wins thread?

 

That part was painfully obvious. I join IJAG in the "my head hurts" category.

 

How far away is he from hitting .400? He needs almost twice as many hits as he has right now to hit .400, and that's if he reaches the minimum ABs needed.

 

He has 197 plate appearances ... needs 305 more, then he can shut it down.