Payton's decision to on-side kick: Is it only a good call because it worked?

I think they would have said, the better team won anyway, but at least Payton went for it.

I think it would be a lot different if the Saints were the favorites.

 

If so they were not looking at situation correctly.

 

Well, it'd probably have to be a well-ensconced veteran coach with great job security (and those guys aren't collectively noted as the most innovative thinkers), or else a guy just hanging on by his fingernails, about to get fired anyway, who'd be willing to roll the dice big on the chances of big rewards.

But you know any coach who adopted the "wall-to-wall balls out" philosophy (never punt, always go for 2, always onside kick) would get absolutely eviscerated by the fans and the media as soon as he lost one game. And even if it worked, he would be written off as "lucky."

 

But it really could work.

Think of an offensive coordinator knowing that they have four plays to make ten yards. It opens a lot more possibilities. Plus, you are just wearing out the other team's defense if it works.

You are right though, not many, if any, coaches could pull it off.

 

Re: Payton's decision to on-side kick: Is it only a good call because it worked?

 

I'm sure if Thomas Morstead's onside kick attempt had failed and the Colts drove for a touchdown and salted the game away, Sean Payton would be vilified for attempting the onside kick.

However, all things considered (especially the fact that the Saints were underdogs AND Payton saw something on film), the fact that he was WILLING to gamble the Super Bowl on that play was an excellent call whether it worked or not. The fact it worked and the Saints scored a touchdown was a mere bonus.

When no one thinks you have a chance, especially when a bunch of idiots think the Colts are so much better than you are, you take your best shots, even if they don't work. If they don't work, no one expected you to win anyway. If they DO work and you win, you look like a genius.

 

Worst case score ends up 17-6 at that time. Saints were able to put points onboard all year so no reason to think they could not put up a few more TD's . In 2nd qtr they started to move ball.

Lets say the Colts scored - Saints take kick off go in and score and its now 17- 13.

The key is Payton picked perfect situation. There is a great photo in SI this week from Colts end zone. On side of kick Colts are out manned 5 -2 . Payton was dead on in the flaw he noticed.

 

Perhaps, but football is such a game of momentum. If the onside kick fails and the Colts score to make it 17-6, it's very possible that deflates the Saints and the Colts steal the momentum back and win their second Super Bowl title in four years.

The fact that it worked gave the Saints incredible momentum that even the Colts scoring on the next drive didn't slow it down. The Saints are incredibly plucky, but I don't know if they're plucky enough to come back from 11 points down on the Colts to win with less than a half of football to be played.

Perhaps they are. I give Sean Payton a ton of credit for having enough athletic arrogance to pull it off. I also give him credit for the gumption required to pay $250,000 of his own money to Gregg Williams to improve his defense, especially after firing his good fried Gary Gibbs as defensive coordinator.

 

http://www.nowpublic.com/sports/hank-baskett-super-bowl-drop-onside-kick-super-bowl-video-2571268.html

Pretty amazing looking at video in slow mo. Note that Saints have 5 guys in area to 2 Colts.

Also note that Basket lined up at Saint 45 and back peddled to 50 Yd line by time ball was kicked. At that point it was a lot faster for the Saints to run 10 yards foward with running start then Basket to change gears and run foward to the 40 yd line where ball hit.

Payton picking this up on film made it a no brainer.

 

At least Baskett has someone to console him ...

 

Couldn't you ask this question about any "great" coaching / managing move?

 

I loved the call even when they were still digging at the bottom of the pile, not even knowing that the Saints had spotted a glaring weakness in the Colts' special teams. I honestly think coaches should try onside kicks more often, and I'd like to see one a game. There's no other play in all of football where you can dial up a turnover like that.

Granted, if you did it often it wouldn't be a surprise and that 60 percent number for "surprise" kicks would drop, but I also think it would help out on your return coverages for deep kicks because it would make blocking them up front harder.