Pakistan is Burning

So, how long do we give Musharraf's government? Matters have gone from bad to worse since the Red Mosque incident. Is this just a blip of blood on the radar or a prelude to civil war? Will Musharraf muddle through or is he on his way out? Will his successors, if any, be of the same general ideological stripe...or not?

I'm not going to offer any speculation. I don't know the situation well enough to throw any predictions out there. But I have been following the disturbing trends in Pakistan for a while.

If Pakistan devolves into turmoil, will the US go ahead and launch a real clean-up operation in the northwest? It's my opinion that the US has been keeping a low profile and limiting its military actions in Pakistani territory because a large US military operation would be a public relations disaster for the already-embattled Musharraf. At what point would the US decide, "Fuck it, Musharraf can't get any more hated than he is already, let's do what we've been wanting to do for years in the Pakistani northwest?"

 

Nice 2000th post. Congrats.

Musharraf is a dead man walking. I think the only reason we haven't gone into Pakistan is because he is (purportedly) an ally in the war on terror. Once he goes, I fear Pakistan will go into civil war — and the winner gets the bomb.

But with Musharraf out of the picture, the U.S. would be free to go full-bore after Al Qaeda in the provinces. Doing that would be a PR disaster in itself among the Pakistanis, but that hasn't fazed Dim Son yet.

 

It's a big problem. Eventually, Musharaff has to go.

Of course, our current policy is that we cannot invade Pakistan because it is a sovreign nation.

I shit you not.

 

If a full-scale civil war breaks out in Pakistan a better question will be what does India do?

 

I disagree with this line of thinking that the US could just come in and clean up northwestern Pakistan, as if it's that simple. The US hasn't been able to clean up the messes it's already made in Iraq and Afghanistan, so what makes anyone think it can go into this treacherous territory and succeed? Musharaff, who has proceeded to support common goals with the US despite countless assasination attempts, has done a courageous and admirable job.

 

Musharraf is a brutal thug, although I fear that his successor could be even worse, for both the Pakistani people and for purposes of fighting global terrorism.

In fairness to Musharraf, he's had an near-impossible task in keeping the jihadists at bay, as Pakistani intelligence and special forces have been full of jihadist-friendly elements since the Soviet-Afghani war. Like so many problems in the Middle East and Central Asia, it's Cold War blowback coming right back in everyone's faces.

I don't know of anyone, cranberry, who thinks that a clean-up operation in the Pakistani northwest would be simple or assured of success.

 

India would sit back and wait to find out what the new government looks like and acts like. Sadly, Musharraf thought a great idea would be to procure nuclear weapons. When it was pointed out to him that he won't be in power forever, he blew it off.

If Pakistan is taken over by fundamentalists, the world will become a downright scary place.

 

Is this the title for ESPN Original Entertainment's latest flick about the World Series of Cricket?

 

There's really no way the U.S. allows the bombs to stay in Pakistan.

The shit, if (when) it goes down, will go down like this, I think:

* Musharraf senses the end, and not wanting to be killed, gives the US government the heads-up a few days in advance.

* In exchange for them hauling his ass out alive, he lets the US know where the bombs are.

* Commandos which we never hear about, and probably never will, go in and raid for the warheads (there aren't that many).

* Once the commandos are cleared, US Navy fighter jets set the Pakistani nuclear program back 10-20 years.

 

Cricket? Pakistan? Suddenly, I feel like a shabby-genteel Anglo-Indian footsoldier of empire, such as the grotesques in Orwells' Burmese Days. I will now drink myself into a subcontinental stupor on tepid bitter in a curry-scented room full of brass elephants while the ceiling fans above circulate dust and my palpable despair through the blue light of gloaming. (farts into embroidered cushion, sinks further into wicker chair)

Back on topic...

OnTheRiver, I concur that there's no way the US lets Pakistani nukes fall into the wrong hands...
At least that's what I presume...
(shudder)

 

Small, thirty second threadjack.

"I thought that 'Rome is Burning' was good enough for a t.v. show. Who is this Pakistan that you are referring to?"

End of threadjack. Return to topic at hand....