1. Welcome to SportsJournalists.com, a friendly forum for discussing all things sports and journalism.

    Your voice is missing! You will need to register for a free account to get access to the following site features:
    • Reply to discussions and create your own threads.
    • Access to private conversations with other members.
    • Fewer ads.

    We hope to see you as a part of our community soon!

Our dangerous statistical ignorance

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by Inky_Wretch, May 20, 2008.

  1. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    No, not of batting averages, but of rare events like terrorist attacks or children being kidnapped.

    This kind of ties in to the Free-Range Child theory ...

  2. PeteyPirate

    PeteyPirate Guest

  3. HC

    HC Well-Known Member

    This was Barry Glassner's take in "The Culture of Fear". Great book. Fear sells.
  4. HejiraHenry

    HejiraHenry Well-Known Member

    My favorite part of Freakonomics is where he establishes how much more dangerous backyard swimming pools are that lawfully owned handguns.
  5. Killick

    Killick Well-Known Member

    I've seen this before, and here's my problem with his thinking: He assumes events happen organically. To wit, a football is placed on the 20 yard line. By itself, the chances that the ball will cross the goal line are small (wind, etc.) But the chances go way up if there's a team trying to score the TD. He neglects the factor of another actor working towards a specific goal.

    Not to fearmonger, but when terrorists are actively working towards a goal, that goal will more than likely happen if we take a laissez-faire approach. Now, does he have a point about creating more haystacks? Of course, but what's the alternative? I dunno. Alot of the current DHS mining isn't only unconstitutional, but isn't terribly effective. Humint is the answer, but we just don't have the horses.
Draft saved Draft deleted

Share This Page