Official Chipper Jones .400 watch

If he's at .421 now, what type of a slump would he have to go through to get below .400, and the question is, can he avoid that slump?

 

On air tonight they put up the stat that he has to maintain at least a .388 avg to hit 400 for the year.

 

Say he hits .300 (15-50) over his next 12 games ... he's down to .398.

Let's say he's got 350 ABs the rest of the season (566 total) and he hits .330 for that stretch (116 hits -- 207 for the year) = .366.
He'd need 20 more hits (227-for-566) to hit .400.

Ain't happening.

 

It's improbable, but not impossible. How did a guy like Brett almost do it? How did a guy like Tony Gwynn almost do it (before the strike, I mean, when he hit 394)? You don't think he could do it? Usually what kills a guy is a five or six game slump in the middle of the year where they go 1-for-20... if Chipper doesn't have one of those slumps, I think he can do it.

 

I'm really not that concerned with whether Chipper can hit .400 -- frankly, I don't think he'll do it and I don't care. I'm just riding this wave and enjoying it while it lasts, because he's been one of my favorite players since he was drafted.

I'm not old enough to have too many players who I've watched come up all the way through, like I have with Chipper, and paid such close attention to their careers. So, for me, it's just a thrill to continue to be amazed by him day after day ... all these years later.

However, the real reason I don't think he'll do it -- and the reason why nobody but Brett has had a shot at pulling it off -- is because he got hot too early. Even Ted Williams couldn't maintain the .400 average all the way through, but he stayed within striking distance and got hot at the end. Brett did it the same way, going into the break at .337, then moving up past .350 in July and then .380 in August and up over .400 in September before he got cold the last two weeks.

Chipper's already got all this attention focused on him, just like Helton did in 2000 and Gwynn in '94 and Olerud a year before that. Nobody can humanly keep up that level of performance under those conditions. The only way we'll see another .400 hitter is if the guy gets hot at the end, like Brett did. ... (Or if he's just a hit machine, like Ichiro.)

 

I believe that if Chipper can avoid the 1-for-20 or 4-for-30 stretch during the season, he has the chance to hit .400. I hope he does it, it would be the coolest thing to see, ever, pertaining to baseball. Who's to say Chipper, if he slows down some in August, and gets to like .385, wouldn't get hot again in September to get to .400? I hope he does it.

 

The thing is ... he's got to avoid too many 4-for-11 stretches. What you're talking about is simply. not. possible.

You know how Chipper hits .400? He misses a month of the season, like Brett did in '80. And THEN, he's still gotta go 2-for-5 every game.

Trust me, I want him to do it more than anybody. But let's wait until September, see where he's at then. Then we'll talk.

 

If he's down to .385 at the end of August, there's no chance. With five of six months gone, he'd have to hit something like .470 the last month.

 

With all the spotlight he normally has had on him on a team that has been in the postseason so often, plus his dealing with the baby taunts and "Larrrrrrrry", I think he is as equipped to handle the spotlight as anyone.

 

Hopefully on the DL with 510 plate appearances

 

OK, I'm sewing together the Mike never gets laid Kewpie doll, and when I plunge that needle into its crotch, you will have a historic case of syphilis. Oh, and there's a press release ...

 

Also said, before his first AB last night, he'd have to go 0-for-40 something just to have his average hit .350