NL Cy Young?

How much of a factor do y'all think strikeouts should be? That is obviously a big advantage for Lincecum over everybody else. If Carpenter ends up with more victories and a lower ERA despite the time missed, do the strikeouts merit putting Lincecum ahead of him?

 

On what universe is Cain having a better season than Lincecum?

That 0.04-point difference in ERA is a difference of 8 IP (185.1 to 177.1) and 3 ER (50 to 47) between 'em. In every other conceivable measure, Lincecum is far superior.

 

Rodriguez does not pitch for a weaker offensive club. Haren does.

 

My ranking criteria
ERA+ (By a mile)
Responsibility for team being a playoff contender
WHIP
K

 

High strikeout totals are a strong sign of dominance, so they should be given decent weight, IMO.

Strikeouts and walks are two of the few things that a pitcher can directly control, regardless of his teammates' abilities in the field. That's why a low SO/BB ratio is such a red flag for a pitcher who comes out of nowhere to have success, such as Fausto Carmona did in 2007. (Mark Fidrych is another example. He hurt his arm, which made it a moot point, but I guarantee you he would have never won 19 games again with 97 K/53 BB in 250 IP.)

It usually means he's getting a lot of abnormal help -- either balls are not dropping in like they usually do (very low BABIP) or his teammates are fantastic at making plays. When you take either of those factors away, those pitchers generally can't maintain that level of success.

Somebody with a high SO/BB ratio -- like Lincecum or Carpenter, who doesn't get a lot of strikeouts but still has a great ratio -- is going to be a lot more successful no matter where he pitches or who's behind him in the field. Because he controls the result himself, as much as he can. That's a key factor in what makes a great pitcher.

Cain, on the other hand, has allowed a .257 batting average on balls in play. That's completely unsustainable. (The league average is around .300.) It means an extraordinary number of balls are being hit right at people this year. And that's a large part of the reason his ERA dropped from 3.76 last year to 2.39. He doesn't strike out many batters, which is fine, but he walks too many. I guarantee you if his SO/BB ratio remains where it is now, next year he'll be close to a .500 pitcher again. Like he usually is.

 

That just isn't accurate, Simon. The Astros have scored 528 runs this season. The Diamondbacks have scored 570.

Both are weaker than the Rockies, who have scored 646 runs, good for sixth in the majors and second to only the Phillies in the National League.

 

I agree that strikeouts have to be given a decent weight in evaluating pitchers, though K/BB ratio is probably a better overall statistic.

That said, some of your argument goes into predicting future levels of success rather than evaluating what those pitchers have done this year. Maybe Cain has been a little bit lucky. Maybe he is just doing a great job of forcing hitters into making weak contact. Either way, he has gotten those outs. Maybe he can't duplicate what he is doing this year, but that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve the credit for it.

Some guys are going to have low averages on balls in play. Brandon Webb was like that before this season, though he also had a decent number of strikeouts. He had that nasty sinker and he would just get ground ball after ground ball. Cain doesn't have that, but he has good enough stuff to force a lot of weak contact when he is pitching well.

I think Cain has pitched on comparable level to Lincecum this year, though I agree with you that he is unlikely to sustain it.

 

It's a shame he never had any big moments, like striking out Carlos Beltran with the bases loaded to win the pennant. Then people might know Wainwright a little better.

 

It's a strange case of two teams each having 2 studs who could cancel each other out.

But someone's gotta win. So, if we're going to compare the numbers, Carpenter's ERA/WHIP would win out for me even though he has half of Lincecum's strikeouts.

 

Carpenter K/BB = 4.8/1
Lincecum K/BB = 4.2/1

Carpenter has lower ERA, lower WHIP, higher K/BB ratio and (like it or not) higher winning pct.

1. Carpenter
2. Lincecum
3. Cain

 

Too bad Cliff Lee wasn't in the NL the entire season or else he might be the slam-dunk winner if he dominated all-season like he has in his first five starts for the Phils.
5-0 0.75 ERA 40 IP 24 H 39K 6 BB 0.75 WHIP

 

Lincecum bolstered his claim last night (8 IP, 0 ER, 4H, 8K, 3BB) in a 2-0 win against the playoff-contending Rockies.

He's 13-4. Threw a season-high 127 pitches. ERA is 2.33.