NFL Week 17 Thread: Kyle Orton's Chance of a Lifetime?

Evil ... Thy name is Orville Redenbacher!! · Dec 24, 2013

http://thebiglead.com/2013/12/23/afc-playoffs-miami-has-66-chance-of-being-last-wildcard-based-on-point-spreads/

Add the win percentages based on point spread, and here is what we get for the final wildcard spot:

Miami – 66.0%
San Diego – 16.7%
Baltimore – 14.6%
Pittsburgh – 2.7%
That may seem high, but it is basically because, the way the tiebreakers work out, and the matchups, Miami is highly likely to make it if they win against the Jets at home. For those of you that remember chemistry class, the rate limiting step in Miami’s playoff chase is the Dolphins getting the win. They are listed as a 6.5 point favorite. They need a San Diego win or a Baltimore loss. Because San Diego is seen as a heavy favorite against the Chiefs, who are likely to rest starters after getting locked into the 5 seed, and because Baltimore is an underdog, Miami is in good shape.

However, I will note that these results are not entirely independent. San Diego plays in the late afternoon time slot, and the Baltimore and Miami results should be known about the time they kick off. San Diego will likely prepare to go all out no matter what (no point in resting starters even if eliminated), but there could be a psychological impact that lowers San Diego’s chances slightly, if they know they cannot advance. If Baltimore and Miami both win early, then the San Diego result very much matters for both of them.

I tend to personally like the Jets and those points with the pressure on Miami and the offense struggling on Sunday, but if you buy the Vegas odds, Miami is a prohibitive favorite, and it is actually San Diego, and not Baltimore, who is slightly more likely to get in.
Click to expand...

As stated earlier; no team controls its own destiny. But Based on this criteria the Dolphins have the best chance.
I think it'll be interesting to see how this theory plays out Sunday.

LongTimeListener · Dec 24, 2013

Michael_ Gee said:

It has to be 100 percent mental, because they suck on the road in other domes, too.
Click to expand...

It is so stark I have begun to wonder if they have some Belichick-style home "equipment" tricks.

Evil ... Thy name is Orville Redenbacher!! · Dec 24, 2013

Mizzougrad96 said:

I think Baltimore has to lose for the Chargers to get in...
Click to expand...

And Baltimore has a Cincy team trying to get a first-round bye, if the Patriots lose to the Bills.
The Chargers get a KC team locked in. Does Reid rest the starters?
Fins get the Jets, which I think is a game they could easily lose. But anyway ...

I think the Chargers have the best shot at a win Sunday. And still not make the playoffs.

LongTimeListener · Dec 24, 2013

In non-playoff-related action ... Raiders remain batshit crazy. Terrelle Pryor returns to starting lineup Sunday. Terrelle Pryor's agent says it's because Dennis Allen wants to see Terrelle Pryor fail.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10190535/oakland-raiders-coach-dennis-allen-hopes-terrelle-pryor-fail-agent-jerome-stanley-says

MileHigh · Dec 15, 2014

outofplace · Dec 24, 2013

Evil ... Thy name is Orville Redenbacher!! said:

http://thebiglead.com/2013/12/23/afc-playoffs-miami-has-66-chance-of-being-last-wildcard-based-on-point-spreads/

Add the win percentages based on point spread, and here is what we get for the final wildcard spot:

Miami – 66.0%
San Diego – 16.7%
Baltimore – 14.6%
Pittsburgh – 2.7%
That may seem high, but it is basically because, the way the tiebreakers work out, and the matchups, Miami is highly likely to make it if they win against the Jets at home. For those of you that remember chemistry class, the rate limiting step in Miami’s playoff chase is the Dolphins getting the win. They are listed as a 6.5 point favorite. They need a San Diego win or a Baltimore loss. Because San Diego is seen as a heavy favorite against the Chiefs, who are likely to rest starters after getting locked into the 5 seed, and because Baltimore is an underdog, Miami is in good shape.

However, I will note that these results are not entirely independent. San Diego plays in the late afternoon time slot, and the Baltimore and Miami results should be known about the time they kick off. San Diego will likely prepare to go all out no matter what (no point in resting starters even if eliminated), but there could be a psychological impact that lowers San Diego’s chances slightly, if they know they cannot advance. If Baltimore and Miami both win early, then the San Diego result very much matters for both of them.

I tend to personally like the Jets and those points with the pressure on Miami and the offense struggling on Sunday, but if you buy the Vegas odds, Miami is a prohibitive favorite, and it is actually San Diego, and not Baltimore, who is slightly more likely to get in.
Click to expand...

As stated earlier; no team controls its own destiny. But Based on this criteria the Dolphins have the best chance.
I think it'll be interesting to see how this theory plays out Sunday.
Click to expand...

Watch them all lose, including the Steelers, the latter probably through some act of stupidity.

LongTimeListener · Dec 25, 2013

Matthew Stafford's girlfriend tweets -- and a fan tweets back:

Kelly Hall @kellybhall
You wouldn't even know we were playing at home the way these fans are booing our home team. #unbelievable

#GoBlueEverything @DetroitKoolAid
.@kellybhall you wouldn't know Stafford played for the lions the way he keeps throwing to the other team

old_tony · Dec 26, 2013

Aaron Rodgers cleared to play vs. Bears Sunday.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/237298541.html

Mizzougrad96 · Dec 26, 2013

old_tony said:

Aaron Rodgers cleared to play vs. Bears Sunday.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/237298541.html
Click to expand...

That should be a good game. The NFL has it set up so all of the early games are horseshit and most of the late games have playoff implications of some kind. Stupid way to do it. They would have been better off leaving the Packers-Bears as a noon game because its outcome doesn't impact what anyone else does.

NDJournalist · Dec 26, 2013

Mizzougrad96 said:

old_tony said:

Aaron Rodgers cleared to play vs. Bears Sunday.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/237298541.html
Click to expand...

Carolina vs. Atlanta is for a division title. But yeah, horseshit. New Orleans could clinch a playoff spot versus Tampa Bay. Horseshit.

That should be a good game. The NFL has it set up so all of the early games are horseshit and most of the late games have playoff implications of some kind. Stupid way to do it. They would have been better off leaving the Packers-Bears as a noon game because its outcome doesn't impact what anyone else does.
Click to expand...

MileHigh · Dec 26, 2013

Mizzougrad96 said:

old_tony said:

Aaron Rodgers cleared to play vs. Bears Sunday.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/237298541.html
Click to expand...

That should be a good game. The NFL has it set up so all of the early games are horseshit and most of the late games have playoff implications of some kind. Stupid way to do it. They would have been better off leaving the Packers-Bears as a noon game because its outcome doesn't impact what anyone else does.
Click to expand...

The 4:25 p.m. EST broadcast window is the second-most watched window and it's the only other winner-goes-to-the-playoffs loser-goes-home game; the other one is in the most-watched broadcast window.

And the other switches made sense. With Denver in Oakland, to keep that game relevant, the league pushed back New England-Buffalo otherwise Denver would know what it has to do -- play it out or rest -- to get the No. 1 seed. Too many options with the rest of the AFC playoff picture to put them all in the 4:25 window.

In the NFC, pushing back New Orleans-Tampa to the same time as Arizona-San Francisco keeps those games relevant because Arizona or New Orleans gets the last playoff spot in the NFC.

There really is a method to the NFL's scheduling madness.

MileHigh · Dec 26, 2013

NDJournalist said:

Mizzougrad96 said:

old_tony said:

Aaron Rodgers cleared to play vs. Bears Sunday.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/237298541.html
Click to expand...

Carolina vs. Atlanta is for a division title. But yeah, horseshit. New Orleans could clinch a playoff spot versus Tampa Bay. Horseshit.

That should be a good game. The NFL has it set up so all of the early games are horseshit and most of the late games have playoff implications of some kind. Stupid way to do it. They would have been better off leaving the Packers-Bears as a noon game because its outcome doesn't impact what anyone else does.
Click to expand...

Click to expand...

You can't get any facts straight or use the quote function properly.

Tampa-New Orleans is not an early game. Carolina-Atlanta is not a de facto division title game since if Atlanta wins, it doesn't win the division.

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NFL Week 17 Thread: Kyle Orton's Chance of a Lifetime?

Evil ... Thy name is Orville Redenbacher!! Well-Known Member

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NFL Week 17 Thread: Kyle Orton's Chance of a Lifetime?

Evil ... Thy name is Orville Redenbacher!! Well-Known Member

LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

Evil ... Thy name is Orville Redenbacher!! Well-Known Member

LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

MileHigh Moderator Staff Member

outofplace Well-Known Member

LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

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