NFL Week 16 thread -- Slippery like Jake the Snake

QBs from non-P5 schools are nothing new in the NFL. In 2000, 10 of the 20 top-ranked passers were from non-P5 schools: Culpepper, Garcia, Gannon, Favre, King, Warner, McNair, Kitna, Fiedler and Batch. Another four (Blake, Frerotte, Dilfer, Pederson) threw at least 100 passes.

 

Kitna lol

He was almost a thing and I think we all kind of wanted him to be.

 

Culpepper, Garcia, Kitna and Batch -- the fantastic four of disastrous Lions quarterbacks.

Not even including Harrington or Orlovsky.

A decade or so down the line it's all getting blurry, but I seem to remember Kitna getting huffy at the idea the Lions might draft Stafford -- not really dissimilar to Brandon Inge harrumphing that he didn't plan to give up his starting role at 3B to the newly acquired Miguel Cabrera.

 

So I just picked through Football Reference, and here are my semi-subjective results.

In the last 10 drafts, 25 QBs have been taken in picks 1-15. Six have been taken 16-32, and 96 have been taken second round on.

You have a 36% chance of drafting a stud in picks 1-15. You have a 40% chance of getting a starter. You have a 25% chance of getting a dud. So that's a a 76% chance of getting a starting QB, and many starters in other locations might be studs.

Of the six QBs drafted 16-32, one is a stud, one is a starter and four are duds. Not much of a sample size.

Now, once we get into the second round, there have been two studs out of 96, or about a 3% chance of hitting a jackpot. Nineteen, or about 20%, have turned into starting QBs at one point or another.

And I would like to list the thirteen QBs drafted 1-15 in the last four drafts.

Burrow
Tua
Herbert
Murray
Jones
Haskins
Mayfield
Darnold
Allen
Rosen
Tributsky
Mahomes
Watson

QBs are entering the league ready to play. Now, does the fact that they don't get the shit beat out of them anymore help them get better faster? Maybe. Sorry, Cincy.

 

Why would they be bitter? Are they die-hard Jets fans? And what's so new about the Jets not getting a quarterback? The last one they had who was relevant was Namath. And God forbid a football team actually go out and do what they're supposed to: play like professionals and win a game. I get what fans feel, that they want the tank to get the franchise quarterback. But half the players on a bad team will be elsewhere next season, or they want to get paid by the team they're with, so they're going to put good tape out there. If they play like dogs, it gets noticed.
I understand if fans are upset with the Jets for not going 0-fer. But they shouldn't condemn guys for doing their job. Also, it's no one's fault but the Jets that Sam Darnold turned out to be a dog.

 

He's probably going to stay with the Jags because he'll be cheap labor for a year and already has a good rapport with the backs and receivers. Depends on the new coach and OC as far as whether he'll fit within a system. If it doesn't work out with the Jags, I think he'd be a good fit as a backup in New Orleans, San Francisco, Seattle, Houston or Arizona.
Something happened, however, to fracture his relationship with Marrone. It could have been when he hid his thumb injury at mid-season. Hard to get a read on anything when there's no locker-room access for the regular beat writers and bloggers to dig this stuff up.

 

It was as simple as this with Haskins: Snyder liked him. He played his prep ball at a high school near D.C. and Snyder thought that would engender some goodwill among the fanbase, to draft him.

In one of these threads way early this year, I was one who said it was way too early to give up on him. Then he continued to step on his own dick. He has a good arm but has no idea how to read a defense. And that shit about going to a strip club maskless? You know who wasn't there? Chase Young. DH has no sense of what it means to be a leader on a team, and that was it for him. I'm not holding my breath that he'll ever figure it out.

 

Bitter because they're NYC-centric.
NYC is the best place for Lawrence to go if he wants to build a national brand. Namath is the best example. The guy won one big game, threw a million interceptions thereafter and wound up in the Hall of Fame because of where he played.
But the best place to go to have real impact, as you suggested, is Jax because he could literally save the franchise from moving. That would be a nice legacy.

 

Players can build a national brand anywhere now. This isn't the 1960s.

 

The funniest part is how the WFT has doubled down on quarterbacks twice in drafts of recent vintage. Once, they got Heath Shuler high in the first round, then Gus Frerotte later. Years later, they selected Cousins in the same draft in which they took RGIII.

The long(er)-term starters? Frerotte and Cousins. You Like That?

Go figure.