NFL Playoff Thread

The Titans finished 9-7.

 

Better off without.

 

No it's not, at least on the Packers' side of the ledger. They truly aren't good defensively.

They can't stop the run (something they could do last year) and they gamble against the pass. Result? Lots of forced turnovers against middling QBs, but lots of times where they get burned too.

 

That's one. And that's it.

 

All the home teams will win except Denver.

 

I'll take the Falcons too.

 

Except Isaac Redman lost two fumbles against the freakin' Browns yesterday.

 

Yes, it is.

This is a stat I like to use in evaluating a team's pass defense:

"ANY/A - adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts sacks)."

One reason being is that if a team throws the ball 50 times and has 300 yards passing then that's a lot different than if a team threw the ball 30 times and had 300 yards passing. Also it accounts for INTs. So where did the Packers defense end up in the league this year? They were 13th. Where did they end up last year? They were number one, the best in the league. Also, the Packers actually had a lower yards per carry against them this year over last year.

The stat where the Packers declined a lot over last year was in sacks. In 2010 they were second, one behind the leader. This year they were a horrible 30th in the league in sacks. If you want one reason for their decline in defensive performance it was the decline in the effectiveness of putting pressure on the QB. However, even that is skewed, because the sack numbers may have been down, as in the case of Matthews, but he accumulated more "pressures" this year than any of his previous seasons. He also posted career highs in picks and passes defensed. This was probably his best season. But as a whole, their rush declined, obviously.

The Packers defense is worse than it was last year, yes, but their #32 ranking is utter nonsense.
As an aside who was the best this year among the QBs as measured by this stat? Well the leaders were:

Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Drew Brees

in that order.

Who is the career leader among QBs with this stat? If you said Aaron Rodgers, you got it right.

 

You couldn't possibly be more wrong about this.

I assume you are just saying Redman is better than Mendenhall, which he isn't. Mendenhall is much faster. He can avoid tackles as well as run through them, while Redman is pretty much all power. More importantly, Mendenhall has proven he can carry the load as a primary back, something Redman has not done. The Steelers asked him to do it Sunday once Mendenhall left the game and Redman responded by fumbling twice.

The other complaint about Mendenhall is ball security, which is ridiculous. It's all about one fumble in the Super Bowl, for which you have to give Matthews some credit. Mendenhall fumbled twice on 347 touches during the regular season in 2010. He fumbled once this season.

Some people don't like the way Mendenhall carries the ball away from his body, but Redman is every bit as reckless.

Even if you were right about Redman being better, the Steelers were much better off when they could use both guys. Now Redman is going to be sharing carries with a scrub off the practice squad or Mwelde Moore coming off an injury.

 

Agreed. Mendenhall has been their starter for a while now for a reason. The fumble in the Super Bowl was a perfect hit by Matthews.

 

Actually, the highest seed will go to San Francisco, so it would be Brees, Eli or Ryan. The Lions would play in Green Bay in the second round.
It's going to be interesting to see what happens if the Saints go to San Francisco. The 49ers (who ended Detroit's undefeated season en route to beating four playoff teams) have a solid Red Zone defense and have given up just three rushing touchdowns all season. The Bay Area has been oddly warm of late, which could easily change in the next two weeks, plus it's Candlestick.
The Niners do need to figure out how to shut down the passing game, but the Niners are solid up front and could harass Brees. Plus all three losses by the Saints came on the road and two to some very bad teams.
But I think the Saints are the only team that could knock the 49ers out of the Divisional round.
Beyond that, I hope the Packers get upset. It's about the only way the Niners can hope to get to the Super Bowl.
Here's hoping for a all-Harbaugh Super Bowl! I want to see what San Francisco can do against the Ravens when they don't have to travel cross-country on short rest.

 

Ryan Clark hasn't been ruled out to miss the game in Denver. He has a sickle cell condition that gets exacerbated in high altitude.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/51390/steelers-should-play-it-safe-with-ryan-clark