New Hampshire Primary Thread

As long as he did not color code everything.

 

Romney is the patsy this time around, just like Dole in '96. I doubt most of the GOP brass really wants Romney to win, or any of the others in the race, and are trying to mold candidates for 2016.

 

He might, but in the current GOP environment he would suffer the same fate as Huntsman - being unable to dumb the message down enough to appeal to the fringes of the party that appear to control the direction of the party.

 

Not a Santorum fan but I give him credit for putting himself out there with his unpopular positions.

 

If he has a decent showing in New Hampshire maybe Opus Dei will set up a Super PAC for him.

 

I might agree about Dole in '96. Since the economy was improving and Clinton looked headed to victory, why not reward Dole for his lifetime of service to the party by giving him the nomination?

But how can you say that the GOP is setting up Romney as the patsy? Most polls show him either leading Obama or being very much within striking distance. And while the economy is showing some positive signs, it is not likely to improve enough by November to be very obvious to most voters. While Romney definitely has his weaknesses, he's the one Republican with a background that could convince voters he can get the economy back on track and the financial strength to match that of Obama.

Romney is no worse than 50-50 to beat Obama. The other candidates will all get clobbered, and the GOP knows it. Other than possibly getting to have another four years to use Obama as a boogeyman to raise money, why would the GOP possibly want to lose the election?

 

Having a boogeyman from the other party in office is good for the balance sheet. The GOP isn't going to get as much cash with a vanilla Romney.

 

When Romney dropped out in 2008 it was speculated that someone in the RNC told him it was in his best interest to walk away and focus on 2012 because it was unlikely that a republican was going to get elected in Bush's shadow and even if McCain did win, that he was a likely one-termer because of his age.

I know the race seemed like it was tight in August/September of 2008, but it was basically a freefall from the Republican convention on.

I don't believe that the GOP wants Romney (assuming he gets the nomination) to lose.

There are some who think the GOP would prefer to wait until 2016 and then get behind a more conservative candidate, but if they think that they're pretty stupid based on how the more conservative candidates are doing in the national polls.

I doubt anyone is content to wait until 2016 and then come out with Christie (pretty moderate), Ryan, Rubio, or whoever they think will be there in four years, it's the wrong move.

 

The GOP may not get as much cash with Romney as President, but it will have a lot more power, especially if it retakes the Senate (which it almost certainly would if Obama were to lose).

* The power to repeal the Affordable Care Act even if the Supreme Court upholds it
* The power to repeal Dodd-Frank
* The power to appoint more hard core conservatives to the Supreme Court, since both Ginsburg and Breyer are north of 70, and therefore use that conservative majority to overturn Roe v. Wade
* The power to pass legislation that allows their wealthy and corporate friends to further screw over the middle class (even if much of said middle class will never realize it)

 

If Romney wins both NH and SC - does anyone think other candidates will have the money to stick around for the other states? Ron Paul maybe but Perry will fold and so will Santorum because they will want team Romney to assume their debts. Gingrich may dig himself too big a hole with negative Romney ads that he gets left out to dry as punishment.

 

If Romney wins South Carolina, which at one point would have been a major upset, but now seems possible if Santorum takes a chunk out of Gingrich's support, the race would be over. I could see people hanging around long enough for Florida, but not much longer.

And, yeah, Ron Paul is never going to go away.

 

The context in which the GOP campaigns is ever shifting. As the economy continues to improve, how does one adjust the message.

Unemployment declined in December for a fourth straight month and there appears to be optimism for a more robust recovery now:

http://theadvocate.com/home/1737470-125/unemployment-falls-to-8.5