NBA 2012: Running thread

Going to be a long November for Mike Brown

 

Lakers are on the road tonight. They are S-L-O-W slow. Although he got hurt in the second quarter and didn't return, Nash is hardly any better than Derek Fisher.

 

James Harden. That is all.

 

I've been saying it to friends and I'll say it here - the Lakers are too old. I guarantee you that by the end of the season, at least one member of their starting five has missed 40+ games due to injury (or in Artest's case, insanity). You've got four old starters and a fifth who's young, but is a 7-footer with a history of back problems. Doesn't take a sommelier to smell the funk coming off that one. Five years ago this team could have chased 70 wins, but not now. They're like the Yankees, stockpiling studs past their use-by date. It doesn't help that their coach has a history of not getting the most out of brilliant players.

I still think, Harden or not, that this is the Thunder's conference to lose. Besides the Lakers, who can challenge them? The Spurs, who have the same age problem the Lakers have? At least they have experience, great coaching and chemistry. The Clippers, who are actually probably the scariest team and biggest threat in my mind, at least on paper. I can see them making a big run this year. Dallas's window opened, they jumped through it and it slammed shut behind them. Minnesota is too white </crossthread>.

 

I watched a good bit of the Spurs-Hornets game last night. Davis is legit. And Aminu played his ass off. Rivers struggled a bit, but they're going to be a pretty entertaining team this year. Not sure what they're win total was in Vegas, but they might surprise a few people.

 

3-for-14 from the line? That's not even hitting 25 percent of your free throws. It's insane how something like free throw shooting has fallen off a cliff in the NBA the past few years.

 

There have always been dominant big guys who are terrible free throw shooters.

But overall it's pretty much the same as it's always been.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1611

 

I get that, but I don't even think Shaq was that bad on a regular basis, was he?

 

neither is Howard on a regular basis. It was one game, he was 15 of 19 the following night. He is still a piss poor free throw shooter but let's not act as if he is going to shoot 20% for the year.

 

Really? Generally, free throw percentage has ranged between 73-76 percent over the last 35 years, so it appears to be getting no better, but no worse over time.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1611

I can't find a league-wide total for last year, but 18 out of 30 teams shot more than 75 percent from the line.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/offense-per-game/sort/freeThrowPct/year/2012

In every era there is a good-to-great big man who seems physically and mentally incapable of making a free throw: Wilt, Chris Dudley, Shaq, Dwight. (Just seeing if you were paying attention.) A reason Dwight Howard stands out so much is that while big men tend to have a harder time with free throws, even by grading by that curve, he still flunks.

EDIT: Damn you Smalltownguy for finding that article quicker than I did!

 

Howard's career free throw percentage is better Shaq's, better than Wilt Chamberlain's, better than Bill Russell's, and better than loads of other bricklaying big men from past eras.

I hate it when people throw out these sweeping "the fundamentals are worse these days" type statements without knowing the actual facts. It's nearly always bullshit. Free throw shooting hasn't gotten any worse, and outside shooting is better now than ever before.

 

I will say I forgot how deflating it is to have a dominant guy who can't make free throws. Last night Howard was outstanding. But that first game -- and pretty much every game he's in -- there's just a sense of "oh no" when he gets fouled and it's not to finish a three-point play. Just seems to sap a team. Now, the Lakers won three titles with a guy doing that, but then again Shaq always "made them when it counted" (except he didn't).

It's a bit of a forgotten choke but Howard missing two in the final seconds of Game 4 of the 2009 Finals when the Magic were up 3 allowed Fisher the chance to tie it up. Even hitting 1 of them would have made it two-possession.

I'm not panicked about Lakers, but it is a bit...disconcerting/sad/worrying/something, that, counting playoffs-preseason-regular season, they've lost 12 in a row. They have the Clips Friday.

Howard is still rounding into shape and it's hurting them on defense primarily. The offense? Eh, er, as Tiger says: It's a process. But I really don't want to see Nash passing, standing in the corner while Metta dribbles around for 8 seconds.