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Morris or Bumgarner?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Dick Whitman, Oct 31, 2014.

?

Who had the more memorable Game 7 pitching performance, Jack Morris (1991) or Madison Bumgarner (201

  1. Jack Morris

    13 vote(s)
    54.2%
  2. Madison Bumgarner

    11 vote(s)
    45.8%
  1. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    Instead of multiplying by .93, you multiply by .965
     
  2. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    As for your other issues, you're simply complaining that the model isn't as robust as it could be. It sacrifices minute amounts of accuracy for expedience. This is not uncommon, unsound or unfamiliar to you.
     
  3. Gehrig

    Gehrig Active Member

    Here is the actual formula:

    OPS+ = 100 * (OBP/lgOBP* + SLG/lgSLG* - 1)

    (where lgOBP and lgSLG are the league averages for the batting environment in which the player created his individual OB and SLG. They are calculated somewhat arcanely.)

    Add relative on-base average to relative slugging and subtract 1. Then multiply by 100 (and round, or perhaps truncate) to get a whole number.
     
  4. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Huh? You created a multiplier that is .93 (i.e. if his team scored 7 percent more runs in away games than home games). Why are you now telling me that you'd multiply his OBS + SLG by .965 (where does that number come from?) and where is that in the formula you gave me?
     
  5. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    So there is no "ballpark adjustment"? For example, is that how someone came up with the numbers you posted for the batters Jack Morris and Madison Bumgarner faced?
     
  6. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    Because it's halfway between 0.93 and 1.

    You have no idea how much respect I'm losing for you. You seemed easily smart enough to grasp this stuff, but my god. All it takes is one of your childhood sports heros vaguely threatened and you are suddenly to math what smallpotatoes is to car repair.
     
  7. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    The ballpark adjustment in that case is applied at the lgOBP and lgSLG level. It comes to the same thing.
     
  8. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    That "halfway between .93 and 1" is junk. That is a random adjustment that has nothing to do with anything about the player OR the thing you think you are subjectively adjusting for. You may as well make up a number and create a multiplier. Yeah, I don't "grasp" that as meaningful. So go ahead and lose respect for me for not understanding that silliness.

    Next time, please don't give me an explanation like that. ... and when you're frustrated with my questions (which were sincere) tell me it's "the formula I gave you" but "now ignore what the formula gives you and make up a number." What a waste of time that was.
     
  9. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Also, it's more than a fudging issue with league averages or an average "away" ballpark (if that is what really gets done -- because I still don't understand and I can't tell for example, from anything on baseball reference). That would be something that isn't robust, as you put it. And yeah, that is a problem for me.

    But on top of it, you also have two other problems. One is what potentially happens when people make subjective adjustments to what were objective measures of something. I won't belabor that.

    The other is what happens when the adjustments inherently don't treat every player equally (that is not a robustness issue; it is a methodology issue). Since all players don't play the same exact schedule, a league adjustment is not an apples to apples comparison. Plus, it just occurred to me that with interleague play, that adjustment creates a whole other methodology issue.

    And when you create an adjustment that compares runs scored in home games to runs scored in away games, how do you know what differences (or other factors) between a home and away game make your actual multiplier suspect for any particular player? For example, the problem with 8 inning home games for a player on a good team versus 9 inning away games that I pointed out.

    Add all of those things together, and yeah, people doing those kinds of things to create a number for the sake of a number isn't unfamiliar to me. But for statistical purposes, there is nothing sound about it. For a subjective argument about which of two players was better (how this gets used), I guess anyone can decide for themselves how useful it is.
     
  10. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    You can't concern troll this hard and be annoyed when people take your ignorance seriously.
     
  11. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Me: How do you actually calculate OPS+?
    Rickstain: Here is the formula. You subjectively create this adjustment to an objectively calculated number this way (total team runs scored at home / total away runs) and then use that as a multiplier against the players' actual OPS.
    Me: How does that do what you are suggesting it does -- you are using your multiplier like a sledgehammer, not just to adjust the part of his stats that MIGHT even be affected by what you are trying to subjectively adjust for?
    Rickstain: Well, after you do what I told you, ignore the multiplier I told you to create and do this random adjustment to it. What are you stupid?
    Me: WTF?
    Rickstain: Concern troll. Ignorant. No respect for you.

    Thanks for your help, Rick.
     
  12. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    RickStain: There's a lot of different ways. It's a little like calculating inflation. Here's one way.

    Big Ragu: What about this other ways?

    RickStain: Those are ways too.

    Big Ragu: Why are you changing your story?!?!?!
     
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