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MLB All-Star Break Awards / Predictions

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Chris17, Jul 11, 2011.

  1. JC

    JC Well-Known Member

    Info above proves that you don't really know what you are talking about.
     
  2. Chris17

    Chris17 Member

    JC... look at the stats man. You're talking about who is a better hitter. So let's disregard walking for a second. Let's look at who is the better hitter, shall we?

    Bautista has 100 hits in 376 plate appearances. He gets a hit of some kind 26.6% of the time he steps in the batter's box.

    Gonzales has 128 hits in 403 plate appearances. So he gets a hit of some kind 31.8% of the time he steps in the batter's box.

    And by the way.... Gonzales's hits are more likely to be for extra bases (49 extra base hits to 47).

    Explain to me again how Bautista is "clearly" the better hitter?
     
  3. Chris17

    Chris17 Member

    And you know.... you're gonna say that walking should factor into the equation. And you're right, it should. If a person walks, he shouldn't be penalized for not hitting.

    We have a solution for that problem. It's called batting average. In which case (.354 to .334) the margin is even more clearly in Gonzo's favor.
     
  4. JC

    JC Well-Known Member

    You can't disregard walking for Christs sakes, getting on base is part of hitting and Home runs are the most valuable thing you can do as a hitter. Would it be bettter if Bautista swung at shitty pitches and made more outs? Not making outs is also very valuable and who makes more outs? The use of RBI is ridiculous as it brings in far too many variables. A hitter can't control what players do around them all he can control is what he does and Bautista has been the better hitter.
     
  5. JC

    JC Well-Known Member

    You're either very young or just real thick. I hope it is young. Thrown in the discrepancies in HR's and intelligent baseball fans will take Bautistas first half every time.
     
  6. NickMordo

    NickMordo Active Member

    I hope Verlander closes out the race for Cy Young, but the Tigers have floundered in past second halves...
     
  7. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    That is truly a dazzling display insane logic by Chris 17. Either you have no idea what you are talking about or you are just an Adrian Gonzalez fanboy willing to twist all reality to support him.

    No, we're not going to ignore walks in an evaluation of a hitter. That is part of the skill of hitting, too. Getting on base matters.

    Hitters have control over their own home run total. They have control over their slugging percentage. They do not, however, have control over RBI. Gonzalez has more RBI because he has a better team around him, not because he is a better hitter.

    Where does that leave your argument? Batting average. Sorry, but anybody who understands player evaluation would rather have a hitter with a higher OBP and slugging percentage than one with a higher batting average.

    It's not like these are small differences here. Bautista has 14 more home runs than Gonzalez. His slugging percentage is an insane .702, more than 100 points higher than Gonzale (.591). He has a significant edge in on-base percentage (.461 to .414) despite the lower batting average because he has more than twice as many walks.

    Could Gonzalez have the better second half? Sure. He started slow, probably because of the shoulder problem. But there is no question that not only has Bautista meant more to his team, he has also been the much better hitter.
     
  8. Chris17

    Chris17 Member

    Gonzalez is more likely to get a hit, and more likely to get an extra base hit, than Bautista. It's that simple. If you send those two guys up to the plate, one is more likely to get a freaking hit. By a fairly wide margin (5%). If you factor in walks the way they should be factored in... which is to cancel them out of Hits/PA by calculating Hits/AB.... then the margin gets wider

    I don't care who has more home runs. Adam Dunn might have more home runs for all I care (which would then severly inflate his SLG!).

    You guys put wayyyyyy to much emphasis on slugging. Let's take an example.... Hitter A goes 1-4 with a HR and 3 strikeouts. Hitter B goes 4-4 with 4 singles. There SLG for that game is the same. Who had a better game at the plate?

    I know that's an extreme example, but you get the point. I'd rather have the guy who gets hits more consistently - who I can send up to the plate and have a higher chance of him getting a hit - than the guy who hits more home runs. SLG should NOT count nearly as much as BA when determining who the better hitter is.

    Point about "Gonzo plays for a better team" taken. As stated above, that's a valuable point. But "Chris17 has no idea what he's talking about".... it's simply numbers and statistics, and realizing which stats indicate good consistent hitting.
     
  9. JC

    JC Well-Known Member

    You still are wrong and don't know what you are talking about. The emphasis that you put on certain statistics is laughable.

    You are talking as if ALL HE DOES is hit Homeruns, he does much more than that. Your Adam Dunn comparison is horrible.

    Which of the 2 is more likely to get out?
     
  10. vicd

    vicd Active Member

    AL Manager of the year: Joe Maddon
     
  11. king cranium maximus IV

    king cranium maximus IV Active Member

    Chris- The horse has left the barn. It isn't coming back. AVG is quaint and old.
     
  12. Chris17

    Chris17 Member

    I'm not saying ALL HE DOES is hit Homeruns. I'm saying THE ONLY HITTING STAT HE HAS on Gonzalez is Homeruns. Which it is. Gonzalez has more triples, doubles, and singles.

    Which then inflates his SLG, per the example above. (BTW, Adam Dunn was an example, not a comparison. Very different.)

    The emphasis I put on AVG and Hit Percentage makes complete sense. Emphasis on SLG should not have nearly as much weight. It's inflated.

    And I'm not about to pull the "I have X amount of experience in the game" card because I know we all do.... but the notion that I somehow must be some teenage kid who must be a Red Sox fan and "don't know what you are talking about" says more about you than it does me. My arguments are valid, we just appear to put weight on different statistics. Clearly, I'm not the only one. General Managers and experts around the league seem to agree.
     
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