MLB All-Star Break Awards / Predictions

Or "Mid Season Awards" or Whatever You Want To Call Them / Predictions. Copy paste and fill in your picks as you wish.... Let's roll.....

AL MVP - Adrian Gonzalez (leads league with .348 average)
AL Cy - Justin Verlander. Dude's got a .88 WHIP and a .187 opponent's BA.
AL Rookie - Michael Pineda. A complete boss.
AL Champion - Im gonna go out on a limb here and say the Texas Rangers. Now that that team is finally healthy, they're on a tear, and they've already shown this year they can beat Boston (3-0 this year).


NL MVP - Jose Reyes. .354 Batting Average is 30 points better than anyone else. And fast as balls.
NL Cy - Gotta go with Jair Jurrjens. 12-3 with a 1.87 ERA. Who thought he'd be the best pitcher in the NL East?
NL Rookie - Craig Kimbrel. Big reason the Braves are where they are. On pace to save 50 this year.
NL Champion - As much as I hate to say it, I'm going Philadelphia Phillies. Though watching Cliff Lee go yard was extremely entertaining.

Well..... thoughts??

 

Bautista as the AL MVP

 

Ha, Dick, I'm an idiot. I wrote these down on a sticky note this morning, and wrote "NL MVP - CK". In my 4:30 pm mind, I wrote Clayton Kershaw and looked up his stats. Meant Craig. Good catch.

 

Bautista barely cracks the top 10 in hits, in the AL. He's 20 points behind Gonzalez in Average, and 12 behind him in RBIs. Gonzalez leads in all three of those categories. The only major stat Bautista leads in is HRs.

And he's been fading lately. I'm keeping Adrian.

 

Check out his OBP and slugging and get back to me.
RBI's and hits are your way of evaluating this?

 

Philadelphia would sweep Texas.
Pitching is too strong.

To get there though, Texas struggles.
Too many bullpen issues.

 

Fading? Might want to check those stats again.

 

He did have a slump, but picked it up again before the break.

 

It's Bautista and not overly close right now.

Bautista has 9 more runs, 14 more home runs, 54 points in OBP, 111 points in slugging and thus 165 points in OPS.

Gonzalez has 20 points in batting average and 8 in RBIs

If that isn't enough then take into account that Bautista has done his in 63 less at-bats. A lot of that has to do with his 39 more walks. If you add walks and hits Bautista has actually reached base safely 11 more times than Gonzalez and he's done it while slugging at a much better rate.

 

I think "fast as balls" is the worst simile-for-the-sake-of-a-simile I've seen.

 

HRs is an awful statistic to judge for MVP category. Ask Mark McGuire. Or, more recently, Mark Reynolds. It says very little about your overall value to your team over 162 games, especially if the other stats aren't there. A guy who averages significantly more hits and significantly more RBIs is more helpful to his team than the guy with significantly more home runs.

HRs and slugging percentage are not and should not be counted extremely high in these types of races. I will give you OBP - perhaps the single most important and "team oriented" stat. But as you mentioned, Bautista has 63 fewer at bats, thus making his higher OBP easier to achieve. Given his recent struggles before the break - yes, he did go through a slump - I'd be willing to bet that his OBP will drop in his next 63 at bats.

Walks are a good stat, yes, but runs don't necessarily indicate MVP quality. Long story short - yes, Bautista has certain statistics that are higher: HR, runs, and OBP. But Gonzalez's significant lead in AVG and RBIs - much more team oriented statistics than HRs or runs - put him over the top in my mind.

I'd say its worth a discussion tho. The one and only thing on the entire thread I don't agree with is the implication that it's not even close. They're both damn good, and the AL East may depend on their play.

 

Just did a search and realized that ESPN and Bleacher Report agree with me. Not that this settles things, I'm sure there are folks out there who side with Bautista. Just saying, it's certainly up for debate, and a worthwhile debate to have (for baseball fans, anyway).

ESPN - http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=6746566
Bleacher Report - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/760604-major-league-baseballs-mid-season-awards#/articles/760604-major-league-baseballs-mid-season-awards/page/2