Mets getting a crack at Matsuzaka?

Good post. All Boras is trying to do is get fair market value for D-Mat. I'd be very surprised if he wasn't one of the Top 20 pitchers in MLB this season based on the few times I watched him in the World Baseball Classic, of which he was the MVP, by the way. He's easily a $12 million-plus pitcher in the current market.

 

No. The posting process enables Boras to take money in without spending at all.

 

Yes, because a handful of starts definitely proves a pitcher is worth $12 million per year. How's my sarcasm font working today?

 

But you miss the point. He's not in the current market and is not subject to its rules. Boras' wishing does not make it so.

 

The Sox are trying to sign him to a contract, just the same. To me, that means Mats ought to ask for what the market value for a young, established pitcher going into his prime commands.

 

Damn straight. But the Sox shouldn't act like the guy is at the food court in the mall when he's actually standing at the only watering hole in the desert. Gil Meche and Ted Lilly have options when this kid has none an the Sox would be idiots to act otherwise, just as he'd be an idiot not to run as much clock as possible. And let's face it, even the $8 million they are offering is solid compensation, and now it seems they are going up. This deal will get done.

 

Nor is he subject to a take-it-or-leave-it offer from the Red Sox because he still has other options and Boras is entitled to use every bit of leverage he can muster on behalf of his client. Every team in baseball knows that he's worth in the $12 million - $15 million range, which is why the bidding went so high during posting. D-Mat may very well be prepared to return to Japan for two years and wait to become a free agent. Of course, neither Seibu (which would lose the $51 million, which is apparently about half the value of the franchise) or the Red Sox (who would lose a top-of-the-rotation level pitcher) want to see that happen. My personal guess is that there will be a compromise and he'll end up signing for something north of $10 million/year but less than his actual value.

 

We agree. He has options, just none palatable to him. If we were doing a pool, I'd take $10 million exactly as the annual value of his deal.

 

Do any of you honestly think this won't get done? I will be shocked if he's not pitching there come spring training.

 

Lilly and Meche are not worth what they got. Contracts are not based just on how good the player is. They are based on factors like timing, the market and the needs of the specific team that signs them.

And let's remember, Matsuzaka is a projection. Not every Japanese player has had his numbers project to the majors as well as people thought they would.

Two of the best pitchers to come over, Nomo and Otsuka, both had funky pitching motions working in their favor. Both dropped off some as hitters had time to adapt.

Mediocre as they may be, Meche and Lilly have both turned in more quality performances against Major League hitters than Matsuzaka has. Throw in an arm that has been overused and this guy is no sure thing.

 

Gil Meche is being paid based on projections, too, that he could become an ace. Dude has a 4.65 ERA and 1.439 WHIP to show for his career to date, not to mention that he's never topped 186 innings. Whether he becomes the ace that the Royals want him to be is another thing.

Mats might not be a sure thing. But neither are J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo, and the Red Sox just gave them $106 million. So there is that.

 

This is just silly. Lilly and Meche are worth exactly the amount for which they signed contracts. If they weren't considered that valuable to their respective clubs, the clubs wouldn't have signed them.

Second, ALL players signings (other than arbitration awards) based on a projection.

And considering starting pitchers in Japan typically pitch just once per week, where are you getting all of this "overused" crap?

Markets, rather than opinion, establish value.