Lean Dean (the tropical version)

Re: Lean Dean (the tropical version) & Erin Go Bragh-less

Official forecast has a Cat 4 Dean making a beeline towards Cancun/Cozumel in five days. That would be the third Cat 4 to hit that area in two years (Emily and Wilma in 2005). But they seem to persevere.

One computer model wants to shoot Dean through the Yucatan Channel or the western tip of Cuba and northwestward. For the sake of Louisianians and those of us who like the way gas prices are dropping, here's hoping that if it hits land, it does so in one of those areas nobody lives, like Hurricane Bret back in the 90's.

 

Fete's over, SoTex.

Bragh-less storm system indeed. :

Back to first hedline.

 

Not a big fan of the GFDL* model, in blue below:






* Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

 

It's the outlier right now. The GFDL seems to want to build a mid-level low in the GOM that would pull it further north, while pretty much all the other models don't see it. If some of the others, like the UKMET or BAMM, follow suit, then you get really worried.


http://www.boatus.com/HURRICANES/hurricane_spaghetti.asp

 

Word up, mon frère.

The Orange Line is an expressway to my front window, which won't be as bad since I'm well inland. But I don't want this times two:

 

The pink line running all the way to the Red River would run right down my road.

 

Not a big fan of the pink line, huh?

 

I'm not a big fan of any line, to be clear. I hope every hurricane dissipates in the water before ever making landfall, but ...

The GFDL model concerns me because it puts New Orleans on the east side, the bad side, of the hurricane before, during and after landfall. The man-made problems of Katrina aside, Katrina came ashore to the east of New Orleans -- which is why Mississippi was hit so hard.

This could be bad news for New Orleans if the blue line proves true.

I hope my friends in front of the pink and orange lines are spared too.

 

You guys are all welcome to evac to the palatial Hooterville estate... no rain falls here... ever.

 

Here's hoping it fizzles out before it makes land, JD.

 

Actually, the orange would REALLY suck for H-Town because it keeps the eye over open water mostly and shooting the Yucatan Gap as a likely F4. That leaves Houston and Galveston on the NW quadrant facing possible winds of 130+ mph.

My happy ass in extreme Far North Dallas would be glad for the rain, but I hope it's far weaker than that.

 

Hasn't Dallas gotten enough rain this summer? I know we have. I read somewhere that Texas is no longer in a drought for the first time in a decade because of the storms this summer.