Latest polling Democrat v. Republican scenarios

Clinton was way ahead in all the polls as recently as a week ago. So, either Obama is really closing the gap or it took voters a long time to decide to look politically correct.

I think there were a lot of factors in NH besides the Bradley effect. The Clinton tears. The debate pile on. The contrarian nature of the voting block. The fact that polling just isn't as reliable as in the past.

In SC, for example, Obama was getting 10 percent of the white vote in the polls and doubled it. He also won by 12-15 more points than expected.

 

Getting 20 percent of the Democratic white vote doesn't exactly smell like a recipe for victory.

 

I still think the main reason polls are flawed is the folks who take the time to participate phone polls are out of the ordinary.

 

Edwards took a fair chunk of that. His support has been breaking toward Obama, especially among white men.

 

That was in one southern state. Polls show Obama's white support in the northern states is higher. The point was that the Bradley effect is overstated and SC shows that to be the case. The polls actually underestimated Obama's white support. How is that the Bradley effect?

 

Agreed. Between that and the fact that fewer and fewer people under 30 have land lines, as was mentioned earlier, I think that skews the results.