Latest polling Democrat v. Republican scenarios

I'm sure we all saw yesterday's WaPo stuff...

Mr. Lugs said he heard on XM's POTUS '08 about some other polls... sorry I don't have time to find it right now, but I'll try later...

Anyway, these polls said the following:

McCain v. Clinton = McCain landslide
McCain v. Obama = Obama landslide
Romney v. Clinton = Romney by 8 pts.
Romney v. Obama = Obama landslide

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I know it's just a poll, and polls change with the wind....

But folks, if you're a Democrat and you're voting this month, please think long and hard about what to do.

 

Polls as of Sunday, 6 pm, February 3, 2008:

Patriots v. Giants = Patriots landslide

 

Poll as of Nov. 1, 1948:

Truman vs. Dewey: Dewey landslide

 

I know it has been said before, but polling data is more suspect than ever during this campaign, thanks in large part to cell phones. More and more people are abandoning land lines in favor of cell phones, which skews polling data collected by phone.

So take those polls with a grain of salt.

 

Polls as of Labor Day, '48: Dewey landslide.

It looked so obvious . . . they curtailed polling.

You can look it up.

 

Oh F you guys. ;D

 

I have read that polls are not good at all predicting for a black candidate. A lot more people say they will vote for a black candidate than actually pull the lever or press the button or whatever.

They just can't account for disconnect for what people say they will do and what they actually do. Call it racism or what have you.

 

Yeah, yeah. That's a good point, Ace.

I'm sure the same is true for a woman.

Either way, that theory is going to be put to the test in the general.

 

It's called the Tom Bradley Effect. Bradley, the mayor of Los Angeles who happened to be black, ran for governor of California. All the polls (even the exit polls) had him way ahead of Republican George Deukmejian. Deukmejian won. Studies showed that many who said they'd vote for a black man couldn't do it once in the voting booth.

 

How many years ago was that?

Not saying everything's perfect now, but there has been huge changes just in the last 20 years.

 

The story I read (by a pollster in the NY Times) was an explanation of why Hillary won the New Hampshire primary when the polls all had Obama way ahead.

That was something less than 20 years ago, as I seem to recall.

 

Yeah, even in an anonymous poll, people wanna put on their best face.