Late Thoughts from Obi Wan & Yoda (06 Midterms)

1/07 10:21 AM Mid-evening, on November 6, Obi Wan went to Yoda and other members of the Jedi Council.

He laid out what he thought were some interesting indicators: Three major polls, all showing the generic ballot lead for the Democrats cut in half.His pollster of choice, Andrew Kohut at Pew (formerly with Gallup), wrote a summary of findings that has a fascinating tone:

The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.

The Republicans also have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters. Since early this year, the Democratic advantage in the generic House ballot has been built largely on a solid lead among independents.

As the New Republic editors noted, the poll showed a particularly surprising drop in the Democratic generic ballot advantage in the Northeast, from a 26 point margin to a 9 point one. Where are the House seats the Democrats want to pick up? Yes, some in Indiana and Kentucky, but quite a few are in Connecticut, New York, and Pennsylvania (and, apparently at one point, New Hampshire).

Obi Wan continued laying out the case – the fact that DeWine is within 6, and Kyl is up 12 or so suggests that this late surge for the GOP is deep and broad, affecting races nationwide, even with very different candidates.

But he said on Monday, he was anxiously looking for some signal that would interrupt the momentum, some bit of bad news for the GOP suggesting that shift was a pendulum effect, not an accelerating shift. For a moment, he thought the Survey USA poll showing Webb up big over Allen was that sign. And then he read thorough dismantling of it by Greg Pollowitz and Riehl World View.

Finally, he suggested that the GOP has actually had a week to ten days of good, or at least motivating events in the news – New Jersey’s gay marriage ruling, the President has looked much better on the stump, Kerry’s comment about the military, low unemployment numbers, and then the death sentence for Saddam.



Obi Wan said, the entire Democratic campaign has harsh, negative, relentless, and focused on the president — “Bush is so terrible,” – at a time when the troops are in the field. Americans still have reverence for that office.


Yoda and the other members of the Jedi Council prodded him. (No, I won’t do the Yoda voice or syntax.) “So, are you predicting this, or are you just offering this as a theory?”

Obi Wan rubbed his chin. He lamented the lack of data for what was happening Monday.

And then, as the night wore on, he received three very interesting pieces of data.

1) Kathryn’s posting that Democratic governor Ed Rendell’s internal polls have Santorum within 5.

2) The pollster for the Detroit Free Press who put Bouchard within 4 in Michigan and gubernatorial candidate DeVos within 2. Rove said on Hewitt’s program:

And then there’s something odd going on in Michigan. There has been, over the last week, a strong push for the Republicans in Michigan. There’s a pollster named Steve Mitchell, who does polling almost exclusively in Michigan, the Epic Poll, and he called the 2000 Presidential race on the button, he called the 2002 gubernatorial race on the button. He called the 2004 Presidential race on the button. And he’s shown in the last week a dramatic close by the Republican candidates for both governor and Senator. Gubernatorial candidate Dick DeVos is down only two, and Michael Bouchard down, as I believe, three points in the Senatorial race, which are dramatic cuts in the Democrat lead.

3) Democracy Corps - Carville, Greenberg – polling completed Sunday night shows a 5 point margin in the generic ballot.


4) Chuck Schumer saying he expects Democrats to gain three or four seats in the Senate. I understand trying to lower expectations, but why now? Did he see something in the past 24 hours that suggested the usual line – “we’re going to take back the Senate!” will look foolish on Election Night? And not just a little we-missed-by-one-seat foolish, but by we-fell-apart-at-the-end-and-didn't-meet-expectations foolish?

So... Obi Wan emphasizes that we can't completely rule out the possibility of the Democrats still winning the House and having a good night. But there is a big, clear wave breaking the Republicans' way in just about every competitive race coast to coast, and it could mean results very, very different from what the Washington crowd expected. http://tks.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTU0ODIwMmYzNmQ4OWU1MGIxNjk5NDkzMzhkM2IzNzY=

 

Dammit, you're making me DIZZY again ...

 

D_B finds the only people more humor-impaired than himself.
The yukmeisters at National review!

 

Dizzy when the GOP keeps both the House and the Senate?

 

Dizzy like a fox.

 

You missed the most recent Star Wars movie -- the Sith had all the Jedi Knights killed. There is no more Jedi council - just Obi Wan and Yoda.

 

I love the sound of Madame Speaker in the morning.

 

weren't there a few others left at the end too?

 

NR loves to fantasize.

They were fantasizing about a Goldwater win.